PARADIGMS, CONFLICT, AND CHOICE -- INTEGRATING PERSPECTIVES TO DESIGN RESOURCE POLICIES, THE WOOD ENERGY EXAMPLE

摘要

The use of wood to produce energy in the United States grew from approximately 0.8 quadrillion Btus (quads) in 1970 to about 2.4 quads in 1980. This thesis addresses this emerging use of the forest resource from the perspective of the science of policy analysis.;The thesis first documents current trends in the use of wood as an energy resource in the residential, industrial, electric utility, and liquid fuels sectors. It then examines the physical capability of the forest resource to support these continuing trends in the production of energy from wood in each of five forested regions. Next the technological and environmental readiness of wood energy systems are assessed. The cost competitiveness of wood energy systems is also examined using the present value of lifecycle costs approach. Non-economic factors affecting the adoption of wood energy systems are subsequently considered. Finally, both public and private interests concerned about or affected by wood energy use are identified and their attitudes toward alternative policies proposed to enhance wood energy use are assessed.;The above analyses led to the design of four scenarios that could characterize wood energy use in the year 2000. Classified as low, moderate, and rapid growth and growth in the event of an energy emergency, these scenarios identify probable levels of use by region in the forest industry, residential, commercial, industrial, methanol, and electric utility sectors. The total expected contribution to national energy supplies from wood ranges between 4 and 7.5 quads but could reach as much as 9.5 quads in the event of an energy emergency. The implications of these alternative scenarios for wood supplies, energy self-sufficiency, balance of trade, employment, government revenues, inflation, and the environment are examined.;In light of these analyses, ten sets of alternative policy options proposed to encourage wood energy use are evaluated. Their potential effectiveness, positive and adverse effects, and chances for selection are analyzed. A recommended policy approach is proposed.;A final chapter assesses the usefulness of the approach taken and discusses the implications of this research for the analysis of resource policies in general.