Essays on the household-level effects of house price growth.

摘要

This dissertation explores the effects of fluctuations in housing values on household saving and investment decisions. Chapter 1 examines the relationship between changes in housing values and household saving decisions. Fluctuations in housing values may affect household saving and consumption by increasing households' perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. Moreover, the increased liquidity of home equity during the recent housing boom may have led household behavior to respond more than in past years to changes in housing wealth. This chapter is the first analysis to provide evidence from household-level microdata suggesting that the housing wealth effect may have increased in line with increased access to housing-collateralized debt. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation for the years 1984--2003, I estimate an average elasticity of household active saving with respect to MSA-level house prices of -0.222, which corresponds to a 1 cent decrease in annual active saving when housing wealth increases by 1 dollar. When I estimate housing wealth effects separately between 1984 and 1990, and between 1996 and 2003, I find smaller effects during the earlier period, but large and significant effects during the later period. During the later period, I estimate an average elasticity of household active saving with respect to MSA-level house prices of -1.044, which corresponds to a 3 cent decrease in annual active saving when housing wealth increases by 1 dollar. Further evidence comparing the magnitude of the wealth effect between different subpopulations -- older homeowners versus younger homeowners, and recent homebuyers versus those with longer tenure -- suggests that a relaxation of liquidity constraints, rather than changes in the composition of the homeowner population, is a central factor contributing to the increase in the housing wealth effect.;Chapter 2 explores the connection between growth in housing values, uncertainty over future housing values, and property owners' investments in housing. Residential housing is a significant share of most American households' asset holdings. As such, the decision to build, to buy, or to make significant improvements to a home is driven not only by consumption considerations, but is also an investment decision. By modeling property owners' housing investment decisions using a framework of optimal capital investment where investments are irreversible and there is uncertainty in future asset values, this analysis theoretically predicts and empirically estimates the extent to which property owners respond to changes in the profitability of housing investment by making investments in their stock of housing. Using a unique dataset of residential sales, geographic information, and the universe of building permits issued in Los Angeles between 1999 and 2008, and focusing on nonresident landlords and "improver-movers" - owner-occupiers who make improvements to their properties and subsequently sell the property, I find that when housing values increase, property owners are more likely to make capital investments, and that the value and square footage of these investments is larger. When house price volatility is high, property owners are less likely to make investments. However, conditional on the decision to invest, the value and square footage of investments is larger. This result is shown to be a consequence of property owners' optimally delaying capital investment when uncertainty over future prices is high.;Chapter 3 documents the extent to which residential real estate development is cyclical - exhibiting periods of rapid expansion followed by periods of rapid contraction - using New York City as a case study. This chapter provides an overview of residential development activity in New York City during the years 2000--2008. In this analysis, I describe the effects of this real estate "boom" on the housing market in New York City during these years, and characterize the long-term effects of the "boom" and subsequent "bust" in residential development on the composition of the City's housing stock. Economic theories of cyclicality in real estate markets, outlined in this chapter, show that uncertainty over the exact timing of price declines coupled with a long development lag can lead to buildings being completed and new units entering the market even as prices decline. Although the elasticity of housing supply is lower in New York City than in other areas, building activity tends to follow a boom-and-bust pattern similar to other areas. Neighborhoods with higher levels of amenities experienced more growth in residential housing supply, and public involvement in development activity (both to facilitate and to restrict development) became less important for builders as the boom progressed. As building activity slows, City officials and developers are taking steps to ensure that stalled construction sites, rather than becoming eyesores and safety hazards, are preserved for future use.