Timber demand projections for the Pacific Northwest: A Delphi survey.

摘要

A four-round Delphi technique was used to tap the knowledge of experts, and get them to project future demand for timber products in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Alaska regions over the next 50 years.;The first two rounds of questions were used to assemble pieces of basic information for all panelists, such as descriptions of timber products and demand factors affecting these products. Historical data were also provided to the panelists. The last two rounds were used for projecting levels of demand for these product groups over the next 50 years. The five timber product groups considered for the PNW were lumber, plywood and panels, woodpulp, export chips, and export logs. The four product groups for Alaska were lumber, woodpulp, export chips, and export logs. Three levels of projection scenarios for each timber product group were generated and aggregated into the final timber demand levels. These correspond to the high, low, and median level projection levels.;The high level projections for the PNW showed an increasing trend in aggregate timber demand. The low level forecasts presented a declining trend, while the median level forecasts exhibited a slowly rising trend in aggregate timber demand. Lumber and woodpulp are expected to remain the leading contributors to aggregate demand.;For Alaska, the high level forecasts depicted a rising trend in aggregate timber demand over the next five decades. The low level forecasts showed a declining demand trend, and the median projection level portrayed a rising trend in aggregate demand. The demand for export logs is expected to fall as the leading contributor to aggregate demand. The demands for lumber and export chips are anticipated to go up.;The evaluation of the Delphi method showed the panelists' belief that the technique is an effective tool for forecasting demand for timber products, and that it should complement qualitative techniques presently in use. The statistical evaluation through comparison of the variances of Rounds 3 and 4 revealed a movement toward greater group consensus in the projected demand levels for all product groups for the PNW, and only for lumber and export logs for Alaska. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.).