Response to an earthquake prediction in southeast Missouri: A study in pluralistic ignorance.

摘要

In the months leading up to December 3, 1990, public attention and media attention were focused on the New Madrid Fault Zone because of a prediction made by Dr. Iben Browning of a major earthquake along the fault on or around December 3, 1990.; A survey of Southeast Missouri residents was conducted in November 1990 to determine the level of misperception of public opinion regarding the believability of the prediction and to examine the third-person effect regarding influence of the media on respondents' opinion about the importance of the problem of earthquakes.; The study confirmed the pattern of the looking-glass perception found in other studies of pluralistic ignorance. The looking-glass perception occurs when individuals believe that others share their views. Over 60 percent of the respondents exhibited the looking-glass perception, and over fifty percent of these were correct when they said that they found the prediction believable and believed that most others did also. A very small number of respondents who exihibited the looking-glass perception incorrectly assessed majority opinion when they said that most others shared their view and did not find the prediction believable.; An overwhelming majority of respondents were accurate in their assessment of public opinion regarding the believability of the prediction when they responded that they believed that most people found the prediction believable, regardless of their own position regarding the prediction's believability.; Two instances of pluralistic ignorance were uncovered in regard to the believability of the prediction and majority opinion. A small percentage of respondents were inaccurate in assessing majority opinion when they said that they did not believe the prediction and felt that most others shared their view, exhibiting the looking-glass false consensus condition. Still others were inaccurate when they reported that they found the prediction believable but did not perceive most others to find it believable, exhibiting what was termed the doubter bias condition.; The study also confirmed the third-person effect in regard to media influence and the earthquake issue. In the case of newspapers, television, radio and newsmagazines, respondents reported that the influence of each was greater on others than on themselves. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)