How decision time and degree of anticipation affect the decision-making process as United States decision-makers confront various foreign policy challenges. (Volumes I and II).

摘要

The problem area in this study is defined as the foreign-policy decisionmaking process. As such it falls under the general rubric of comparative foreign-policy studies. In particular, the focus is the effect that decision time and degree of anticipation have on those decisionmakers taking part in that process; the bureaucracy activated during the process; and the major phases of decisionmaking that follow.;To examine the decisionmaking process in the context of U.S. foreign-policy decisionmaking, we made use of a methodology known as a structured, focused multiple-case-study comparison. The methodology allowed for a structured analysis of specific aspects of our dependent variable. It was focused (or controlled) inasmuch as hypotheses were tested for each case study under investigation by subjecting all case studies to identical comparative questions. And it employed a multiple-case-study analysis in order to generalize across a number of cases.;In this study the dependent variable is the decisionmaking process which is conceptualized in terms of four requisite phases: convocation of the decisionmaking unit; selection of option(s); implementation of selected option(s); and feedback and evaluation of the implemented option(s). An analytic typology was deduced a priori based on previous decisionmaking and comparative foreign-policy scholarship. We postulated the decisionmaking process to be affected by differences in decision time and degree of anticipation (our independent variables) in specific ways. We then derived theoretically relevant hypotheses for which we developed comparative questions to test our hypotheses. All case studies were subjected to the same testing. Finally, we collected cases using our independent variables as criteria for collection purposes after which we tested the hypotheses for "goodness of fit" based on observation in the case studies. We collected three cases for each combination of independent variables for a total of twelve (N = 12) cases.;We discovered several things during our investigation. First, the typology in fact predicted rather well the ways in which the requisite decisionmaking phases would be affected by short time versus long time and surprise versus anticipation. Second, we discovered weaknesses in specific hypotheses which led to new questions and areas for further research. And finally we were able to make generalizations about the decisionmaking process that help to build bridges of theoretical import in the comparative foreign-policy discipline.