State-operated lotteries: Problems and prospects.

摘要

The 1980s can be characterized as an era of fiscal stress in the United States. During this decade state and local government were confronted by the implementation of 'New Federalism' policies, along with persistent citizen resistance to increased taxation. These dual imperatives led state and local government to seek new and innovative sources of revenue. One of the more visible, and arguably most controversial, public policy trends to emerge from this search has been an expansion of government into the gambling 'business'. The most noteworthy example of this phenomenon is State lotteries. Thirty-five states, encompassing three quarters of the nation's population, currently operate lotteries.;Proponents have consistently portrayed State lotteries as a public policy panacea. However, to date there has been no systematic case study of the economic, political and ethical factors underlying State lotteries. There are a number of important theoretical concerns to be addressed if we are to properly understand the role State lotteries play in public finance and state government. The Public Choice school of Political Economy (Niskanen, Buchanan), with its emphasis on the nature, operation and proper role of government in relation to the economy and society, has provided a theoretical framework this case study of the Oregon State Lottery will utilize to assess bureaucratic behavior and government growth.;The study draws on a number of statistical techniques to investigate lottery behavior. Time series analysis reveals a pattern of declining sales for existing games when new technologically advanced games (Keno, Video Poker) are introduced. Identification of ARIMA models for each lottery product aid in accurately forecasting future revenues, a neccesity given state budgetary constraints (Measure 5). Analysis of Variance shows a skewed pattern of distribution of lottery profits favoring the rural areas of Oregon.;Despite these findings, this study concludes State lotteries will be an integral facet of public finance for the foreseeable future. The author argues State lotteries have not solved the fiscal dilemma confronting state government. The study concludes with a number of policy proposals, along with a proposed research program for the future academic study of State lotteries.