Back in BRAC: A predictive model of military base realignments.

摘要

Purpose. Upon the announcement of a presidential request for a base realignment and closure (BRAC) round, municipal jurisdictions and civic organizations surrounding installations unite to prevent their bases' closing or realignment. Consequently, local communities hire BRAC specialists and former BRAC commissioners to lobby legislators and U.S. Department of Defense personnel with the intention of keeping their bases off the list of BRAC recommendations. In an effort to maximize local communities' limited resources to fight BRAC, the purpose of this study was to identify factors that contribute to military base realignments. Theoretical Framework. A BRAC selection criteria analytical framework was created by identifying political and administrative stakeholders in the BRAC process. These stakeholders exhibited behaviors defined by congressional parochialism, distributive politics, rational decision making, and bounded rationality. Predicated on previous research and stakeholders' expected behaviors, 4 categories of military selection criteria were generated: political factors, geographic factors, economic factors, and facility characteristics. Methodology. A binomial logistic regression equation was tested using secondary data collected for the 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, and 2005 BRAC rounds. Twenty-two independent variables defining the 4 categories of military selection criteria were tested for military bases employing over 300 civilian personnel during each BRAC round to determine statistically significant indicators of military base realignment. Findings. The following selection criteria were found to be statistically significant indicators of realignment: southern bases; number of civilians employed on base; population, per capita income, unemployment rate, educational attainment, and cost of living surrounding an installation; and congressional seniority, BRAC member, House Armed Services Committee (HASC) member, number of congressional representatives, and Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) member. Conclusions and Recommendations. For densely populated communities surrounding an installation, land use planning efforts are key to mitigating realignment in a future BRAC round. Local military communities should invest in their educational institutions and workforce investment boards to ensure a robust workforce is available for installations to employ. This research suggests that a more effective use of lobbying efforts should be focused on targeting congressional members of key committees such as the HASC and SASC. Lastly, lobbying congressional representatives with established tenure is also a more effective use of resources.