Economic interdependence and militarized interstate conflict, 1870-1985.

摘要

This dissertation investigates the impact of economic interdependence on militarized interstate conflict during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Rival arguments about the impact of interdependence on conflict and alternative conceptions of the characteristics believed to contribute to trade's dampening or amplifying effect on conflict are explored. Rather than assuming that trade will always promote peace, as long maintained by Liberal theorists, the author highlights the need to consider both the nature and context of economic linkages in assessing whether such ties are more likely to inhibit or heighten interstate conflict. The study encompasses a diverse group of dyadic relationships, including approximately 70,000 dyads, for the period 1870-1985 and includes 714 militarized interstate disputes, including 37 wars. In addition, samples of dyads from the pre-WWII, post-WWII, and full period (1870-1985) of the study are analyzed to investigate whether the relationship between interdependence and conflict remains consistent across time.;After controlling for the potential confounding influences of contiguity, regime type (joint democracy), relative capabilities, and alliance commitments, the author finds evidence that economic linkages have a dramatic impact on interstate relations. Yet, rather than inhibiting conflict, extensive economic interdependence increases the likelihood that dyads will engage in militarized interstate disputes. However, interdependence has little effect on the most extreme forms of dispute occurrence--wars, or on the intensity of conflicts that arise among interdependent states. Peace through trade is most likely to arise among dyads composed of mutually dependent trading partners. Even then, the dampening effect of symmetrical trade relations on conflict is offset by the expansion of interdependence. Low to moderate degrees of interdependence have little effect on conflict, but extensive interdependence dramatically increases the likelihood that dyads will engage in militarized disputes. The findings reveal that the relationship between interdependence and conflict remains relatively consistent across time.