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Asymptotic Bayesian discrimination and regression.

机译:渐近贝叶斯判别和回归。

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摘要

This thesis investigates the problems of discimination and regression using Bayesian methods with emphasis on their asymptotic properties when p, the number of variables that can be observed, is unlimited. For the problem of discriminating between two multivariate normal populations the conjugate prior is found to lead to asymptotically perfect discrimination, under certain conditions on the parameters. Similarly, in a problem of discrimination between two populations with binary variables, using a Dirichlet process prior, necessary and sufficient conditions for asymptotically perfect discrimination are found. To investigate this determinism a comparison is made between the Bayesian discriminant function and a sample-based discriminant function which fits the data exactly when p is large. It is shown that their performances are asymptotically equivalent. Similarly, for the regression of normal variables with a conjugate prior the Bayes predictor, which implies asymptotic deterministic predictability, is asymptotically equivalent to a classical least squares predictor which exacly fits the sample data for large p. Thus the conjugate Bayesian approach neglects the problem of bias due to overfitting. In contrast, it is shown that a certain nonconjugate prior does not imply asymptotic determinism for the Bayes predictor, and renders the behaviours of Bayes and least squares predictors different. This reveals the importance of the choice of prior distribution for Bayesian analysis.
机译:本文研究了使用贝叶斯方法进行区分和回归的问题,并着重强调了当p(可以观察到的变量数)不受限制时的渐近特性。对于区分两个多元正常群体的问题,发现在参数的某些条件下,共轭先验导致渐近完美的区分。类似地,在使用二元变量对两个总体进行区分的问题中,事先使用Dirichlet过程,找到了渐近完美区分的必要和充分条件。为了研究这种确定性,我们在贝叶斯判别函数和基于样本的判别函数之间进行了比较,当p大时,该函数恰好适合数据。结果表明,它们的性能在渐近上是等价的。类似地,对于先于共轭的正态变量进行回归,贝叶斯预测变量(意味着渐进确定性可预测性)在渐近性上等同于经典的最小二乘预测变量,它完全适合大p的样本数据。因此,共轭贝叶斯方法忽略了因过度拟合而产生的偏差问题。相反,表明某个非共轭先验并不意味着贝叶斯预测器的渐近确定性,并且使贝叶斯和最小二乘预测器的行为不同。这揭示了选择先验分布对于贝叶斯分析的重要性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Fang, Biqi.;

  • 作者单位

    University of London, University College London (United Kingdom).;

  • 授予单位 University of London, University College London (United Kingdom).;
  • 学科 Physics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1995
  • 页码 137 p.
  • 总页数 137
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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