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Time-of-day effects in inter-city business travel.

机译:城际商务旅行中的时间影响。

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摘要

This research incorporates time-of-day effects into the analysis of inter-city business travel behavior. Towards that end, a model of traveler behavior incorporating time-of-day effects is developed, tested, and empirically calibrated. The model is then compared with a conventional mode choice model to predict the market share of high speed rail in a hypothetical market.; We extend De Serpa's 1971 time allocation model to a multiple time regime environment. Time-of-day effects can then be modeled as differences in the resource value of time for each regime. A model is specified in terms of a three regime daily cycle: work, leisure and sleep. For each time regime, the resource value is specified as the sum of two components: a spatial component and an activity component.; The empirical research has two elements: an exploratory set of open-ended interviews and a stated preference survey used to estimate model parameters. The interview results offered qualitative support to the multiple regimes theory. Survey data were analyzed using a random parameters logit model. The estimates indicated that in the sample population, the activity component of the value of time changed significantly across time regimes. In particular, sleep time was valued six times as much as leisure time, and thrice as much as work time.; The spatial component of the resource values of sleep and leisure (for one evening) was jointly estimated. It was found to be equivalent to the disruption of 40 minutes of sleep time for single individuals, and on average equivalent to 80 minutes of sleep disruption for individuals with families.; A mode choice simulation experiment was conducted to analyze the aggregate effects of neglecting time-of-day effects in conventional analyses. This experiment indicates that under a broad range of assumptions, conventional models underpredict market shares for high speed rail. This bias can be traced to the trade-off between spending a night away from home and beginning travel early in the morning.
机译:这项研究将时间效应纳入城市间商务旅行行为的分析中。为此,开发,测试并凭经验校准了结合每日时间影响的旅行者行为模型。然后将该模型与常规模式选择模型进行比较,以预测假设市场中高铁的市场份额。我们将De Serpa的1971年时间分配模型扩展到多个时间范围环境。然后可以将一天中的时间影响建模为每个方案的时间资源价值差异。根据三个制度的每日周期来指定模型:工作,休闲和睡眠。对于每个时间范围,资源值都指定为两个部分的总和:空间部分和活动部分。实证研究有两个要素:探索性开放性访谈集和用于估计模型参数的陈述偏好调查。访谈结果为多元体制理论提供了定性支持。使用随机参数logit模型分析调查数据。估计表明,在样本人群中,时间价值的活动成分在不同的时间范围内发生了显着变化。特别是,睡眠时间的价值是闲暇时间的六倍,是工作时间的三倍。共同估算了睡眠和休闲(一晚)的资源价值的空间成分。事实证明,这相当于单身人士中断40分钟的睡眠时间,而单身家庭平均相当于中断80分钟的睡眠时间。进行了模式选择模拟实验,以分析传统分析中忽略日间时间影响的总体影响。该实验表明,在广泛的假设下,传统模型会低估高速铁路的市场份额。这种偏见可以追溯到在外出过夜和清晨开始旅行之间的权衡。

著录项

  • 作者

    Mehndiratta, Shomik Raj.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.; Operations Research.; Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1996
  • 页码 184 p.
  • 总页数 184
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;运筹学;综合运输;
  • 关键词

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