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Innovative fiscal policy and economic development in the transition economies.

机译:转型经济体中创新的财政政策和经济发展。

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This research tackles issues of fiscal policy and of social and economic development in the transition economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The novelty of this study is a compilation of the topics discussed in a unified fashion. Despite recent economic growth, the still lacking solid market institutional base, persistent inequality and labor migration, lagging social systems and inconsistent fiscal revenue continue to shape the development context of the twelve CIS economies. Now, after sharp fiscal contraction at the height of the market reforms, the state is back in the economy. That role is not clearly identified and strategic approach has to be worked out in the unique conditions of state-capitalism. Crucially within the CIS countries may be categorized between net exporters and net importers based on their external positions.;As an intellectual roadmap, this study reviews several key aspects of fiscal policy, development, and political economy in each country group. Addressing the balance of payments and role of state the study refutes the twin deficits proposition due to missing correlation between fiscal and external deficits in the CIS. The true drivers are elsewhere and are specific to country circumstances. Review of fiscal policy sustainability raises concerns as budgets are stretched. Despite net exporters' reliance on energy exports recent events of the 2008-2009 global crisis have got all CIS economies in search of new sustainable financing sources.;One alternative to low cost operational fiscal income proposed in this study is a Diaspora bond - a debt instrument with a patriotic discount for the expatriates. Revenue from that must be channeled to strategic public investment in education and infrastructure (e.g. Strategic Learning Systems and Infrastructure Development Fund) facing innovation and rapid growth challenges. Related to the Diaspora efforts are the proposals of Diaspora Mechanism and Migration Development Bank to help the CIS economies regulate labor migration trends and remittances flows, which have had distortionary effects on smaller economies but a benefit to the larger net exporter countries; and to address the welfare problems of the army of migrants.;With new fiscal revenue sources and potential access to the Diaspora, the fiscal diamond of fiscal policy efficiency becomes a fiscal net, custom tailored for each country's specifics. Exchange rate fluctuations and current account changes correlations in the newly open CIS economies are important. Econometric analysis suggests the J-curve effect with country variations. Due to the quantity effects, political and economic sensitivity of exchange rate in transition, and reliance on imported consumer goods, early detection is instrumental.;Related to exchange rate vulnerability and currency shock is the model of currency reserves targeting, built and estimated in this study. Geared towards the CIS, the model also considers external, private and public debt outcomes of blended fiscal and monetary policy decisions characteristic of the CIS. The model analytically assesses the potential financial crisis and currency-run in transition. This then has direct application in the context of the current economic meltdown that has affected the transition economies.;Ongoing global economic crisis is the test to the CIS economic development model's resilience. It is apparent that strong state's role is needed. Design of proactive and innovative fiscal program, effective fiscal policy, will be the key to the sustained well-being and growth of the post-socialist economies of the CIS. This study attempts a unified and novel approach to the problem analysis within a general social and economic development scope.
机译:这项研究解决了独立国家联合体(CIS)转型经济国家的财政政策以及社会和经济发展问题。这项研究的新颖性是对以统一方式讨论的主题的汇编。尽管最近经济增长,但仍然缺乏稳固的市场体制基础,持续的不平等和劳动力移徙,社会制度落后以及财政收入不稳定继续影响着独联体十二个经济体的发展背景。如今,在市场改革的高峰期急剧的财政紧缩之后,国家重新回到了经济中。角色的角色尚未明确,必须在国家资本主义的独特条件下制定战略方法。在独联体国家中,至关重要的是,可以根据其外部地位将其划分为净出口国和净进口国。作为智力路线图,本研究回顾了每个国家组中财政政策,发展和政治经济的几个关键方面。针对国际收支和国家角色的研究,由于独联体的财政赤字和外部赤字之间缺少相关性,该研究驳斥了双赤字的主张。真正的驱动因素在其他地方,并且取决于国家/地区的情况。随着预算的紧张,对财政政策可持续性的审查引起了人们的关注。尽管净出口商依赖能源出口,但最近的2008-2009年全球危机事件使所有独联体经济体都在寻找新的可持续融资来源。本研究中提出的低成本运营财政收入的另一种替代方法是散居海外债券-一种债务为外籍人士提供爱国折扣的工具。从中获得的收入必须用于面对创新和快速增长挑战的教育和基础设施方面的战略性公共投资(例如,战略学习系统和基础设施发展基金)。与侨民的努力有关的是侨民机制和移民开发银行的建议,以帮助独联体经济体调节劳务移民的趋势和汇款流量,这对较小的经济体产生了扭曲性影响,但对较大的净出口国有利;有了新的财政收入来源并有可能使用侨民,财政政策效率的财政钻石将成为一个财政网,针对每个国家的具体情况量身定制。在新开放的独联体经济体中,汇率波动和经常账户变动的相关性很重要。计量经济学分析表明,J曲线效应随国家差异而变化。由于数量效应,汇率转换的政治和经济敏感性以及对进口消费品的依赖,早期发现是有帮助的。与汇率脆弱性和货币冲击有关的是本次针对,建立和估算的货币储备模型。研究。针对独联体,该模型还考虑了独联体特有的财政和货币政策混合决策的外部,私人和公共债务结果。该模型通过分析评估潜在的金融危机和过渡时期的货币运行。然后,这可以在当前影响过渡经济体的经济崩溃的背景下直接应用。;持续的全球经济危机是对独联体经济发展模式的弹性的考验。显然,需要强大的国家角色。设计积极和创新的财政计划,有效的财政政策,将是独联体后社会主义经济持续福祉和增长的关键。这项研究尝试在总体的社会和经济发展范围内采用统一的新颖方法进行问题分析。

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