The long and winding road to democratic peace: Industrialization and war in the modern world.

摘要

This research project focuses on the causes of overexpansion. Under particular conditions of state-formation and industrialization, which lead to democratization, coalitions can form that pursue overexpansionist foreign policies.;First, I argue that when state-formation and industrialization occur simultaneously, multiple social and political conflicts will occur. Once such a situation is created, systemic conditions affect the pattern of coalition formation which may eventually emerge. I develop following hypotheses: (1) Rapid and simultaneous state-formation and industrialization will lead to the simultaneous emergence of several competing social groups. (2) Late modernization will lead to concentrated economic interests and a strong military. If a strong military faces a rapid relative decline in the domestic society, the military will radicalize. (3) Economic instability and unstable security circumstances create coalitions between the radical military and these concentrated economic interest groups.;Second, I show that pre-World War II Japan satisfied these hypotheses. Japan underwent rapid and simultaneous state-formation and industrialization between the 1860's and 1910's, producing multiple social groups. Japan was militarily underdeveloped upon its entrance into the international society. As a result, a strong military interest developed. Japan's economic development had somewhat progressed before entering the international society. As a result, the Japanese society developed the concentrated large bourgeoisie and the scattered small bourgeoisie.;The 1920's began with a difficult but growing economic environment. The security circumstances were also peaceful, although there were instabilities in the Chinese continent. In such an environment, the anti-military coalition among large and small bourgeoisie and landowners began to form, opposing military build-up which imposed heavy taxes. The labor-capital dispute was manageable, since the growing economy gave the bourgeoisie room to compromise with organized labor. The military had no choice but to yield to the civilian anti-military coalition because the security environment took away any leverage it once had. This, at the same time, radicalized the military.;The anti-military coalition collapsed because of a drastic economic downturn in 1929. The rural interests were upset by the priority given to the industrialized sector, which led to an anti-big bourgeois sentiment. The large bourgeoisie looked to the military as a quick solution to their financial problems. The small-to-medium bourgeoisie, who could have stood against the military's challenge, were severely disillusioned and also left the coalition.