Economic *policy and financial sector reform in emerging markets: The case of Central and Eastern Europe.

摘要

This dissertation addresses the historical development of capital markets in the region of Central and Eastern Europe over the "decade of transition" from 1989 to 1998. Given the problematical nature of privatization and the recent, dramatic switch to capitalism and democracy, Central and Eastern Europe constitutes an ideal setting in which to study the interaction of economic, political, and international influences on the policy formation process. The countries located there began the decade of transition with a more or less identical system of "communist finance" yet current financial intermediation structures are different. Why?;Three substantive essays address this process. The first essay comprises an historical overview of the political and economic development of the region, beginning in the Middle Ages, through to the end of the current century. Examination of the historical record indicates that economic development, political change, and international influences are all inextricably intertwined with the policy-making process. This chapter also demonstrates the uniqueness (vis-a-vis other so-called emerging market countries) of the social and political context for economic policy in the region.;The second substantive essay comprises a variety of statistical tests relating to why reform-minded policies are implemented, sustained, and yield economic benefits. This chapter finds that geographical and historical factors are important determinants of policy enactment and also help determine economic results (measured as per capita income growth). In addition, the chapter calls into question previous empirical tests of the positive influence of securities market development on economic growth.;The final substantive chapter comprises an in-depth examination of the development of capital markets and their relation to the real economy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. Specifically, the chapter examines privatization of large-scale industry and state-owned banks; credit policy and bad loans; corporate governance and bankruptcy; and equity market development. The chapter demonstrates that the current "sectoral explanation" (different interest groups or sectors vie for favorable treatment) for policy formation is applicable if suitably modified for the unique situation in Central and Eastern Europe.