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Signaling commitments by investing costs: The provision of extended deterrence via alliance.

机译:通过投资成本来表示承诺:通过联盟提供更大的威慑力。

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摘要

The existence of alliances between unequal states is a puzzling one. Major powers appear to gain little in terms of security from allying with minor powers, while minor powers live in fear of being abandoned by their major power patrons. However, as Morrow (1991) theorized, major states gain some autonomy benefits from such alliances, while the minor power(s) in the alliance gain security. In this dissertation I conceptualize extended deterrence as a benefit that great power defenders proffer to minor power allies. Major powers are able to receive benefits from their minor power allies that permit the major powers to maintain a global presence. Minor powers gain security from this relationship, with the major power's capabilities enhancing the deterrent aspect of the alliance.;I maintain that the credibility of such a deterrence commitment can be developed if the great power defender uses costly signals as a means of demonstrating their commitment to their ally's defense. These costly signals serve as investments made by the great power into the minor power. These investments provide cues to potential aggressors, and serve as indicators of how committed a defender is to protecting an ally. These investments are conceptualized in this dissertation as security benefits provided by the great power defender. In return, the great power defender must receive some benefit for its provision of security. I maintain that the autonomy benefits the protege is willing to sacrifice in return for gaining security also send signals to a potential attacker, and help determine the value that a defender has for its protege;Within the general framework of security/autonomy I construct a signaling model of extended deterrence via alliance. I argue that perceptions about the strength of the defender's signal determine whether an aggressor state makes a demand of a great power's protege. I empirically test hypotheses derived from the signaling model on a set of alliances drawn from the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Each of these alliances has some deterrence component explicated in the reason for its existence. I utilize a bivariate probit with selection to analyze data pertaining to signal strength, benefits derived for the major power, the balance of forces, domestic costs, and international reputation costs. I analyze both extended general and extended immediate deterrence, both as individual equations and as part of a larger, sequential process. I find that changes in the strategic environment play a role in determining whether extended general deterrence succeeds or fails. This is largely a function of the investment of time and money that the defender has made in the relationship. At the level of extended immediate deterrence I demonstrate that great power defenders are more likely to intervene if major autonomy benefits are threatened. This holds even if the defender is weaker than the challenging state. The findings of the dissertation suggest that alliances are better at deterring aggression than has previously been assumed, and that if enough costs are invested into the alliance, they tend to be more reliable.
机译:不平等国家之间联盟的存在令人费解。大国在与小国结盟方面在安全方面似乎收效甚微,而小国则担心被大国赞助者抛弃。但是,按照Morrow(1991)的理论,主要国家从这种联盟中获得了一些自治利益,而联盟中的次要国家则获得了安全。在这篇论文中,我将扩展威慑概念化为大国捍卫者提供给小国盟友的好处。大国能够从其小国盟友那里获得利益,使大国保持全球存在。小国从这种关系中获得安全保障,大国的能力增强了联盟的威慑力。我坚持认为,如果大国捍卫者使用昂贵的信号来表明其承诺,这种威慑承诺的信誉就可以得到发展。保卫他们的盟友。这些昂贵的信号充当了大国对小国的投资。这些投资为潜在的侵略者提供了线索,并表明防御者对保护盟友的决心。本文将这些投资概念化为大国捍卫者提供的安全利益。作为回报,大国捍卫者必须因提供安全而获得一些利益。我坚持认为,为获得安全性,蛋白质愿意为牺牲而牺牲的自治权也会向潜在的攻击者发送信号,并帮助确定防御者对其蛋白质的价值;在安全性/自治的一般框架内,我构造了一个信号联盟扩大威慑的模式。我认为,对后卫信号强度的看法决定了侵略者国家是否要求大国提供蛋白质。我对来自19世纪和20世纪的一系列联盟的信号模型得出的假设进行了经验检验。这些联盟中的每一个都有一些威慑成分,其存在的原因被阐明。我利用选择的双变量概率来分析与信号强度,主要力量所产生的收益,力量平衡,国内成本和国际声誉成本有关的数据。我既分析扩展的一般威慑力,又分析扩展的立即威慑力,既作为单个方程式,又作为较大的顺序过程的一部分。我发现战略环境的变化在确定扩大的总体威慑是成功还是失败方面发挥了作用。这很大程度上取决于辩护人在这段关系中投入的时间和金钱。在扩大立即的威慑水平上,我表明,如果威胁到主要自治利益,那么大国捍卫者更有可能介入。即使防御者比挑战者的状态更弱,这一点仍然成立。论文的研究结果表明,同盟比以前设想的更能阻止侵略,而且如果对同盟投入足够的成本,它们往往会更可靠。

著录项

  • 作者单位

    Michigan State University.;

  • 授予单位 Michigan State University.;
  • 学科 Political science.;International law.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1999
  • 页码 292 p.
  • 总页数 292
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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