Ireland in transition: Economic development and international migration, 1980-1997.

摘要

This dissertation seeks to understand the reasons for (1) high rates of emigration from Ireland in the 1980's and (2) sharply declining rates of emigration from Ireland in the 1990's. Using fixed-effects regression models, this research analyses Irish migration flows to and from twelve European Union nations and the United States from 1980 to 1997. Specifically, four Irish migration streams are studied: net flows in general, net flows to specific destination countries, gross out-flows to specific nations, and gross in-flows to Ireland from specific origin countries. Testing Neoclassical Macroeconomic, Dual Labor Market, and Network theories of international migration, this dissertation finds strong and consistent empirical evidence to support Neoclassical Macroeconomic migration theory. Controlling for other factors, increases in Irish emigration rates, regardless of destination country, are associated with slow wage growth and rising unemployment rates in Ireland. Furthermore, Irish migrants tend to move to those countries which have comparatively higher wages and comparatively lower unemployment rates than Ireland, controlling for other factors. Thus, the 1980's recession in Ireland appears to have driven much of the nation's high rates of emigration over that period and the current economic boom seems to account for much of the sharp declines in Irish emigration in recent years, while comparative economic conditions significantly influence which nation an Irish person chooses as a destination country.