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Sequential decision problems arising in commercial vehicle operations.

机译:商用车运营中出现的顺序决策问题。

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摘要

In this dissertation, we present and analyze three models of sequential decisionmaking that are motivated by information issues in the trucking industry and more broadly in transportation. The first model relates to the common need to determine a path along a road network in which the arc costs are known precisely. We develop an algorithm suitable for use by a centralized information service providing route guidance to dispatchers or drivers. The algorithm exhibits a form of machine learning, so that fewer computer resources are needed to determine optimal paths once. the system has been trained. The algorithm operates approximately 60% more efficiently than the best-known alternative algorithm for this problem.; The second issue addresses the question: what is the economic value of near real-time traffic data. Such data can lead to re-routing enroute around traffic congestion. Such data may be corruted by noise and available only after a delay due to data collection, fusion, and transmission. We introduce the concept of the time value of data, to help address this question.; In the third problem we assume that the decision-maker has access to historical distributions of link travel times at different times of the day. The are costs are modeled as random variables whose distributions are nonstationary. Rather than a path, from source node to destination node. the optimal solution is a time-dependent routing policy. We demonstrate that a heuristic search algorithm quickly identifies a relevant subspace of the state space, and produces the optimal value function and an optimal policy for that subspace, and can significantly out-perform a standard application of dynamic programming.
机译:在本文中,我们提出并分析了顺序决策的三个模型,这些模型是由卡车运输业以及更广泛的运输业中的信息问题所推动的。第一模型涉及确定沿道路网络的路径的共同需求,在该路径中精确地知道电弧成本。我们开发了一种适用于集中式信息服务的算法,可为调度员或驾驶员提供路线指导。该算法表现为机器学习的一种形式,因此只需较少的计算机资源即可确定最佳路径。该系统已经过培训。该算法的运行效率比最知名的替代算法高出约60%。第二个问题解决了这个问题:近实时交通数据的经济价值是什么?此类数据可能导致围绕流量拥塞的重新路由。此类数据可能会受到噪声的干扰,并且仅在由于数据收集,融合和传输而导致的延迟之后才可用。我们介绍数据的时间值的概念,以帮助解决这个问题。在第三个问题中,我们假设决策者可以访问一天中不同时间的链接旅行时间的历史分布。成本被建模为分布不平稳的随机变量。从源节点到目标节点,而不是 path 。最佳解决方案是时间相关的路由 policy 。我们证明了启发式搜索算法可以快速识别状态空间的相关子空间,并为该子空间生成最优值函数和最优策略,并且可以大大胜过动态编程的标准应用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bander, James Lewis.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Michigan.;

  • 授予单位 University of Michigan.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.; Engineering System Science.; Operations Research.; Economics Commerce-Business.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1999
  • 页码 106 p.
  • 总页数 106
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 一般工业技术;系统科学;运筹学;贸易经济;
  • 关键词

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