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International capital flows: An evaluation of Turkish capital flight.

机译:国际资本流动:对土耳其资本外逃的评估。

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摘要

Capital flight was a major economic concern during the early eighties. More recently, events in South America, Asia, and elsewhere have shown that it remains an important issue for individual countries and the entire world. Given the issue's importance, there is an extensive amount of literature on capital Right on the subject but there is still not a common definition of capital flight. The study reviews the major definitions and estimates the determinants of capital flight in Turkey from 1971--1995.; In early studies, the major reasons for capital flight were high inflation, overvaluation of currencies and interest rate differences between the country under study and the United States. Using the five major capital flight measures with Turkish economic data reveals that four definitions (World Bank, Morgan Guaranty, Cline, and Dooley) yield similar results while the Cuddington method differs significantly.; In this study, capital controls in the country, deficit to GNP ratio, overvaluation of the Turkish Lira and real and nominal interest rate differentials between Turkey and Germany are revealed to be the key determinants for capital flight from Turkey. The results show that capital control, overvaluation of the currency, high deficit-GNP ratio and nominal interest rate differences enter the equation significantly with the expected signs. Real interest rate differentials do not appear to be a significant factor in determining capital flight from Turkey. The study also looks at the effect of political instability on capital flight, the results are insignificant.
机译:八十年代初期,资本外逃是主要的经济问题。最近,在南美,亚洲和其他地方发生的事件表明,它仍然是单个国家和整个世界的重要问题。考虑到这一问题的重要性,关于该主题的资本权的文献很多,但是对于资本外逃仍然没有一个统一的定义。该研究回顾了主要定义,并估计了1971--1995年土耳其资本外逃的决定因素;在早期研究中,资本外逃的主要原因是通货膨胀率高,货币高估以及所研究国家与美国之间的利率差异。使用五种主要的资本外逃措施与土耳其的经济数据表明,四种定义(世界银行,摩根担保,克莱恩和杜利)得出的结果相似,而库丁顿方法则存在显着差异。在这项研究中,该国的资本管制,赤字对国民生产总值的比率,土耳其里拉的高估以及土耳其和德国之间的实际和名义利率差异被认为是逃离土耳其的关键因素。结果表明,资本控制,货币高估,高赤字-国民生产总值比率和名义利率差异均以期望的符号显着进入方程。实际利率差异似乎并不是决定从土耳其流出资本的重要因素。该研究还考察了政治动荡对资本外逃的影响,其结果微不足道。

著录项

  • 作者

    McDonald, Gulay Tokcan.;

  • 作者单位

    City University of New York.;

  • 授予单位 City University of New York.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.; Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1999
  • 页码 85 p.
  • 总页数 85
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;经济学;
  • 关键词

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