This work is comprised of three loosely related papers, each of which considers some aspect of catastrophe risk deriving from climate variability. In El Niño and One Hundred Years of Storm Surge in the Eastern North Pacific, I analyze roughly one hundred years of sea-level height data in Honolulu, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. The results indicate that the frequency of large storm surges has increased greatly overall, with strong increases in Honolulu and San Diego, a less significant increase in San Francisco, and no significant change in Seattle. In Information Aggregation in Catastrophe Reinsurance Markets, Jason Shachat and I test whether experimental catastrophe futures markets can aggregate diverse risk information. We conclude that our markets equilibria reflect participants' primarily acting on prior information only, with buyers of reinsurance underestimating the probability of catastrophic losses. Finally, in The Value of Extended Climate Forecasts in Insurance Markets: Heterogeneous Risk Beliefs, Market Power and Regulation, I ask whether twelve-to-eighteen month climate forecasts generate positive utility for consumers of catastrophe insurance in simple insurance models. I find that benefits to consumers depend upon additional model specifications such as solvency regulations, market power, or heterogenous risk beliefs. I also find that monopoly profits decrease and competitive profits remain the same when forecasts are introduced unless heterogenous risk beliefs are specified.
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