Modeling the physical and biogeochemical processes in Lake Superior using LAKE2K.

摘要

Modeling lake processes and dynamics improves understanding of the system and supports predictions of the response of the lake to perturbations, such as climate change. LAKE2K, a 3-layer surface water quality model, uses a mass balance approach to simulate the physical and biogeochemical cycles in Lake Superior. The model is successfully calibrated with data from offshore Lake Superior in 2011, a year with average meteorological conditions. The thermal regime, phytoplankton populations, and phosphorus cycle of Lake Superior are modeled, resulting in a representation of seasonal trends in this dimictic system. The calibrated model is confirmed with an application for Lake Superior during 2012, a climatic anomaly. Recommendations for improvement include expanding the model to a more finely segmented multi-layered version and partitioning the particulate phosphorus variable. The model serves as a test bed to simulate temporal variations in Lake Superior and predict its response to perturbations.