Assessment of technology-based ventures: Complexity and viability. Toward early-stage, technology-based venture screening and assessment decision aids.

摘要

The assessment of early-stage, technology-based ventures is a high-risk endeavor, complicated by the fact that typically there is very little information on which to base analysis. The complexity of this evaluation problem is further compounded by a lack of decision tools specifically intended for this evolutionary stage.; The objective of this research is the development of decision aids for screening and assessment of very-early stage ventures. Specifically, for ventures entering the product development stage, not having yet reached initial market introduction, and having at most an initial prototype. To achieve this end, two paths are explored, presented as three separate but related studies.; The first two studies consider the decision behaviour of venture assessment experts, and have implications for tool development through increased understanding of the concepts utilized and their application. The third, and perhaps the most significant study of the three, considers the assessment problem from a different perspective.; Rather than considering the decision process of experts, this study poses a basic question. What parameters influence the potential of an early-stage venture to successfully evolve through to the market introduction phase? The final study considers ventures as complex systems evolving under uncertainty and the application of concepts from viability theory. An assessment framework is proposed, and an initial examination of validity and reliability is undertaken.; Implicit in this approach is the understanding that investment opportunity assessment is an ongoing activity. At any instant in time, the issue facing the investor is whether to exercise an option to support the venture further. Thus, the prospective assessment tool must not only be applicable for screening and assessment, but also for tracking venture development. The proposed assessment framework is shown to have potential not only in this monitoring role, but also as a means to facilitate expert assessment panels.