Earthquake mitigation decision making in local government: An application of system dynamics modeling.

摘要

This dissertation is about the general problem of reducing the impact of disasters, particularly earthquakes, on communities and their people. The focus is on mitigation: taking steps before a disaster to reduce the damage that might occur after it. While significant effort has gone, and continues to go, into developing the technical expertise to reduce damage before a seismic event, too much of what is known is not used. With utilization in mind, this work examines the process used for earthquake mitigation decision making by local government officials.; The research is a case study of a small town in the Mid-west, a place of particular interest because of the coupling of the potential for extreme damage and the infrequency of seismic occurrences. Data collection involved small group semi-structured interviews, informant feedback sessions, telephone interviews, and archival data. Data was collected on an on-going, as needed basis, which reflects the iterative nature of methodology used. The decision process was studied for the period 1980–1999. The primary variable was the number of safe essential facilities, buildings necessary in responding to a disaster event such as police and fire stations and hospitals.; The research uses system dynamics modeling, a methodology new to the discipline of social work. System dynamics modeling is a computer modeling technique that produces an operational, visual model of a focal problem. Each of almost 100 variables in the model was quantified using city data, which allowed behavior-over-time graphs to be generated. These graphs present a dynamic rather than static understanding of the decision making process in the target city. Simulations were conducted to show the potential impact of making different decisions on the level of mitigation in this city.; Substantive conclusions suggested by the research include: (1) local government is not the only player necessary for improving local building safety; (2) the personal inclination of the department head responsible for building code adoption and enforcement is crucial to city mitigation efforts; and (3) the city could improve local safety through a combination of code adoption/enforcement and promoting non-structural retrofits in the community.