The economic impacts of new sorghum and millet technologies in Mali.

摘要

The introduction of new agricultural technology in Mali has been concentrated more in the new cereals (maize and rice) than in the traditional cereals (sorghum and millet). The new cereals have been emphasized for their higher productivity and for consumer's shift towards the new cereals. This thesis considered whether future new technology introduction should remain focused on the new cereals, or shifted towards the traditional cereals. A sector model was used to estimate the societal benefits to alternative new technology introduction policies in the traditional and new cereals.;The sector model results suggest that new technology introduction in the traditional cereals would provide a larger potential increase in benefits than new technology introduction in either of the new cereals. The model results reflect two advantages to the traditional cereals. One is that although the new cereals have higher productivity, traditional cereals have larger potential yield increases with new technology introduction. Diminishing returns are likely to accompany further new technology introduction in the new cereals given the considerable intensification they have already experienced. The other advantage is that the traditional cereals require less stringent growing conditions. Mali's dry climate and harsh geography are better suited to the traditional cereals, so benefits from new technology introduction in the traditional cereals would be realized over a wider area and extended to more farmers.;Two additional policy implications were found. One is the need to accompany new technology introduction with policies that increase traditional cereal demand. Under existing demand, model results found that cereal prices would fall too quickly for technology diffusion to proceed. Promoting additional uses of the traditional cereals beyond its existing role as a staple food, through cereal processing and as an animal feed, would moderate cereal prices and accelerate technology diffusion. A second policy implication is to facilitate an increase in farmer's liquidity. Model results suggest that to derive maximum benefits from technological change, farmer's out-of-the pocket expenses would need to be doubled. While farmers appear capable of self-generating this additional liquidity without credit, monitoring farmer's progress as they proceed through this process of self-generating liquidity is suggested.