Application of decision analysis techniques for land use planning and management.

摘要

This dissertation reports four studies dealing with decision-making related to land use and conservation at several spatial scales. The first study uses decision trees and map quality indicators to assess the economic value and efficiency of soil surveys. Three different scenarios with different levels of information available are considered. The calculated economic value of the soil survey was greater than the estimated soil survey cost. The use of this method provided a means of calculating a realistic value of soil surveys. Spatial indices for the identification of nutrient loss potential were developed in the second study intending to be used for evaluation of lands receiving dairy manure. These indices use geographical information and nutrient application data for ranking geographical areas regarding potential nutrient export to streams. The indices were determined for the Cannonsville Reservoir Basin, in Delaware County, NY. The results show the potential for application of these indices for selection of priority areas for implementing best management practices or enrollment in conservation programs. In the third study, a multiple criteria optimization model was developed to serve as a decision-support tool to assist in making manure allocation decisions at farm scale. The model finds optimal solutions for a specific situation by minimizing a composite objective function that considers economic and environmental indicators, such as the Phosphorus Site Index. The structure of the model allows the planner to change the importance of various subfunctions, making it possible to obtain solutions that meet different management objectives. The fourth study applies the manure optimization model to a real dairy farm. Several combinations of manure storage capacity and manure application method were optimized: Utility functions were used for defining the total utility of each management scenario. The results indicated that a larger utility would be reached with superficial manure application, having a three-month manure storage capacity, and allocating manure according to a scheme optimized in time and space. The use of decision analysis techniques shows promise for advancing the field of soil science, and these studies constitute a multiple scale approach for assessing environmental problems regarding land use and management.