Viable National Missile Defense system.

摘要

This study investigates the United States stated intention to pursue the development and eventual deployment of National Missile Defense (NMD) system. Although the study grapples with the entire NMD issues, nevertheless, due to limited scope of the study, its primary endeavor is to evaluate the current U.S. NMD plans in terms of technical feasibility and reliability. In addition, the study assess the costs associated with each proposed NMD program.; To evaluate the viability of the proposed NMD plans I set "viability criteria" for technical feasibility and reliability and postulate that, based on the current NMD test results, and available technology, the U.S. can develop and deploy a "viable NMD system", an effective ABM system that will work effectively and consistently against defined threats. I define the threats as an attack by a few to a 10s long-range ballistic missiles from the "rogue nations," and potential accidental or unauthorized missile launch. Admittedly, a "truly viable NMD system" must be also suitable with respect to the current world politics, it must be affordable under the current economic condition, as well as cost effective. Affordability means that the ABM system can be build within existing budget constraints. Optimal system are cost effective meaning that development and deployment cost can meet or exceed predetermined cost objectives.; Using these criteria I contrast proposals made by former President Reagan, former President Bush (senior), former President Clinton, and President George Bush. The analyses show that Reagan's proposal despite its initial popularity fails proposed viability criteria. Bush's (senior) proposal is still deficient but closer to reality. Clinton's proposal meets marginal viability requirements, including 80 to 90 percent reliability. The NMD proposal by President George W. Bush, the main topic of discussion, albeit clearly meets reliability requirements of 90 to nearly 100 percent, it may face some difficulty being accepted by the world community. Moreover, the proposal is highly questionable with respect to affordability and cost effectiveness as well. Given this rather mixed results, from the ABM shield overall viability perspective, I proposed an "alternative NMD plan" that fulfills the established viability criteria.; If the arguments advanced in this dissertation are correct, deployment of the newly proposed "alternative NMD system" will achieve most of the desired objectives and, contrary to the Bush's "robust" NMD system, will have a very limited negative effect on world politics. Moreover, because of its on-going and "proven" operational success, much lower costs, and minimal risk of potential cost growth, the development of the "alternative NMD system" would not have potentially lasting negative financial consequences for the United States.