X-RAY LASERS: STRATEGIC PROBLEMS AND POTENTIAL AS AN IN-ORBIT EXOATMOSPHERIC BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM.

摘要

The problems and potential of a single proposed ballistic missile defense system, the x-ray laser-armed satellite, are examined in this research. Specifically, the x-ray laser satellite system is examined to determine its impact on the issues of cost-effectiveness and crisis stability.;The cost-effectiveness of the x-ray laser satellites was determined for two different operational capabilities, damage-limitation and assured destruction. For an assured destruction capability, four options were used, each option containing a different mix of offensive weapons. It was found that x-ray laser satellites could be part of a minimum-cost force mix. Their use, though, was found to be a strong function of the initial unit satellite cost, the retaliatory EMT required and the offensive weapons usable in the force mix. Further, x-ray laser satellites were always included in a minimum-cost force mix with ICBMs and vice-versa. Qualitatively, x-ray laser satellites were determined to have little value as a damage-limiting weapon. Deployment of x-ray laser satellites was found to not decrease crisis stability and in some cases actually increased crisis stability.;The following conclusions were reached. The effects of deployment of a new weapon system on the Triad as a whole should be examined. The x-ray laser was found to have little effectiveness as a damage-limiting weapon for a defender. For an assured destruction capability, x-ray laser satellites could be part of a minimum-cost force mix with that capability.;To examine the cost-effectiveness and the crisis stability of the x-ray laser satellites, a simulation of a nuclear exchange was constructed. Two versions of this model were used in this analysis, a deterministic version of a Monte Carlo version. The x-ray laser satellites were assumed to be vulnerable to attack from enemy satellites with limited satellite-to-satellite lethal ranges. Symmetric weapons and force postures were used. Five principal weapon classes were used in the model: ICBMs, SLBMs, x-ray laser satellites, bombers, and endo-atmospheric silo defenses. Also, the orbital dynamics of the ballistic missiles and satellites were simulated.