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Costs and benefits of monetary union: A study of the CFA franc zone.

机译:货币联盟的成本和收益:CFA法郎区域的研究。

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We use a variety of frameworks to study the African monetary union known as the CFA franc zone, focusing on benefits and costs associated with membership.; The institutional structure of the franc zone, established in 1948, retains many of its initial attributes. This structure has helped produce remarkable stability, both in membership and in the value of the franc zone's fixed currency, which is pegged to the French franc. We develop a model of the franc zone using a game-theoretic framework which explains this stability. We introduce a multinational currency union that includes an important institutional feature of the franc zone, the requirement of unanimous agreement for changes in the nominal exchange rate. We find that this requirement leads to lower inflation and government spending levels.; We then perform two empirical investigations of the benefits and costs of franc zone membership. First, we estimate a Solow growth model to examine whether participation in the franc zone enhanced growth performance. Using a pan-African data set, we utilize dummy variables to capture the effects of franc zone membership on growth performance. The results provide evidence that franc zone membership actually hindered growth performance relative to other sub-Saharan countries.; Next, we examine the cost of membership in the franc zone by calculating real exchange rate (RER) misalignment in member countries. We model the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate (LRER) as a function of real fundamentals and estimate parameters for these fundamentals. Using these estimates, we construct the LRER for each franc zone country and calculate RER misalignment. We find that franc zone members suffered persistent RER overvaluation in the decade leading up to the 1994 CFA franc devaluation. The degree of misalignment varied between countries, and it was only after several consecutive years of misalignment among all countries that they unanimously agreed to devalue the CFA franc.
机译:我们使用各种框架来研究称为CFA法郎区的非洲货币联盟,重点关注与成员资格相关的收益和成本。 1948年建立的法郎区的体制结构保留了许多最初的属性。这种结构有助于在成员国和法郎区固定汇率(固定汇率为法郎)的价值方面产生显着的稳定性。我们使用解释这种稳定性的博弈论框架开发了一个法郎区域模型。我们引入了一个多国货币联盟,其中包括法郎区的重要机构特征,名义汇率变动需要一致同意的要求。我们发现此要求导致较低的通货膨胀率和政府支出水平。然后,我们对法郎区会员资格的收益和成本进行两次实证研究。首先,我们估算一个Solow增长模型,以检验参与法郎区域是否能提高增长绩效。使用泛非洲数据集,我们利用虚拟变量来捕获法郎区成员资格对增长绩效的影响。结果提供了证据,表明与其他撒哈拉以南国家相比,法郎区成员资格实际上阻碍了增长表现。接下来,我们通过计算成员国的实际汇率(RER)失调来检查法郎区的成员资格成本。我们将长期均衡实际汇率(LRER)建模为实际基本面的函数,并估算这些基本面的参数。使用这些估算值,我们为每个法郎区国家/地区构建LRER,并计算RER失调。我们发现,法郎区成员在1994年非洲金融共同体法郎贬值之前的十年中一直遭受RER持续高估。各国之间的错位程度各不相同,只有在所有国家连续数年错位之后,它们才一致同意将非洲金融共同体法郎贬值。

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