Factors that explain Internet growth in Africa: An empirical model.

摘要

This dissertation asks the basic question: which factors explain Internet growth? Africa is chosen as the case because it has less Internet penetration than any other world's region, and it will benefit most from an understanding of the critical relationships amongst the variables influencing Internet development. In addition, Africa's 55 countries (cases) provide sufficient data for an empirical and statistical analysis. The underlying hypothesis is that it is possible to describe the growth in Internet users by using a few predictors from an initial set of several macroeconomics and technology variables. This dissertation identifies and measures the effects of "optimum" predictors on the growth in Internet users.;Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the best-fit model between the number of Internet users (the dependent variable) and eleven candidate predictors between 1996--1999. The final regression analysis yields a subset of four significant predictors: population, gross domestic product per capita, Internet hosts, and ISPs.;The most surprising findings of this dissertation are that contrary to conventional wisdom; the number of telephone lines, and access costs are insignificant predictors of growth in Internet users. The negative effects of the lack of an infrastructure and high ISP access-charges are much less, than the positive effects of the four significant predictors on Internet adoption, as measured by the growth in Internet users.;The other major finding reveals that the effects of the key predictors are different when Africa is hypothetically segmented into three groups: geographic regions, dominant religions, and culture/languages. The Western and Southern regions have the most Internet penetration, perhaps because of cultural and economic influences from Southern Europe and the West, while the Central African region has the lowest. Christian regions have the slowest Internet penetration rate, perhaps because of the hold of the Church on media, while Indigenous religion regions have the highest growth rate that may be attributed to less resistance to open and secular Internet in these societies.;Policy implications are then derived based on the strength of correlations of each independent variable in the model. The apparent priority should to develop hosts and computing resources rather than invest in telecommunications infrastructure. Africa has the unique opportunity to "leapfrog" through several stages of Internet development by introducing policy reforms and technology simultaneously.