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Working out the inevitable: Domestic coalitions in war termination (Pakistan, China, Soviet Union).

机译:解决不可避免的问题:终止战争的国内联盟(巴基斯坦,中国,苏联)。

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摘要

What keeps wars going and what finally makes them stop? Historical evidence suggests that wars, once begun, are very difficult to stop. They seem to last much longer and cost much more than belligerents expect at the outset and rational choice scholars would predict. War termination is a bargaining process between two interacting sides. As rational choice theories suggest, belligerents will settle a conflict as soon as they develop an overlapping bargaining space. In this study, I build on these models by developing an argument that refines the domestic mechanisms to explain why each side decides to come to the bargaining table. I develop a model about the domestic coalitions that decide to prosecute and eventually end a war.; There are many possible reasons why a war, once begun, is difficult to stop. I argue that these reasons fall into one of three categories: (1) information arguments, or situations in which the belligerents' leaders do not know that they should end the war; (2) preference arguments, or situations in which the belligerents' leaders do not want to end the war; and (3) entrapment arguments, or situations in which the belligerents' leaders want to end the war but cannot.; To create an overlapping bargaining space and thus end a war, belligerents on both sides must change their expectations about the war. This change in expectations occurs most often with a shift in the belligerents' governing coalitions. A domestic coalition shift is a consequential change in the identity of the decision-makers or a substantive change in the government. In cases of clear battlefield success, a domestic coalition shift on the “losing” side may be sufficient. In cases of ambiguous battlefield performance or stalemate, a shift in the governing coalitions may be necessary on both sides.; I test this model though statistical-correlative analysis and mini-case studies of 18 post-World War II interstate wars and detailed case studies of the Korean and 1965 Indo-Pakistani wars.
机译:是什么使战争继续进行,什么使战争停止?历史证据表明,战争一旦开始,就很难制止。它们似乎持续更长的时间,而且花费比交战者一开始所期望的和学者们所预期的理性选择要高得多。终止战争是两个相互作用的方面之间的讨价还价过程。正如理性选择理论所暗示的那样,交战方一旦发展了相互重叠的讨价还价空间,便会解决冲突。在这项研究中,我通过提出一种论点来建立这些模型,这些论点完善了国内机制,以解释为什么双方决定参加谈判桌。我建立了一个关于决定起诉并最终结束战争的国内联盟的模型。战争一旦开始就难以停止,有许多可能的原因。我认为这些原因可归为三类之一:(1)信息论证,即交战方领导人不知道他们应该结束战争的情况; (2)偏好论据,或交战国领导人不愿结束战争的情况; (3)绑架论据,或交战方领导人想结束战争但不能的情况;为了创造一个重叠的讨价还价空间,从而结束一场战争,双方交战方必须改变对战争的期望。期望的这种变化最经常发生于交战方执政联盟的转变。国内联盟的转变是决策者身份的相应变化或政府的实质性变化。如果在战场上取得了成功,则在“失败”方面进行国内联盟转移可能就足够了。如果在战场上的表现含糊不清或陷入僵局,双方可能都需要改变执政联盟。我通过统计相关分析和对18次第二次世界大战后的州际战争的小型案例研究以及对朝鲜战争和1965年的印度-巴基斯坦战争的详细案例研究,测试了该模型。

著录项

  • 作者单位

    Harvard University.;

  • 授予单位 Harvard University.;
  • 学科 Political Science General.; Political Science International Law and Relations.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2002
  • 页码 461 p.
  • 总页数 461
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 政治理论;国际法;
  • 关键词

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