Development and validation of a transportation direct mode choice model.

摘要

Mode Choice Models are used to analyze and predict the choices that individuals, or groups of individuals, make in choosing the transportation facilities that are used for a particular type of trip. In this research, the basic intention is to find, calibrate and validate a discrete choice model based on Direct choice method to use in mode choice. The demographic and level of service data used in calibration were from the Dallas Fort Worth metropolitan area for the base year 1999. The model concentrated on the home-based work trips. The output of a current mode choice model, which is a nested Logit model developed by regional Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), was also used in the calibration process. Validation was conducted against the outputs of the current nested Logit model used by the regional MPO as well as the observed values based on transit ridership surveys.; The calibrated Direct choice model was then applied to a new transit service, a commuter rail between Dallas and Fort Worth, which initiated service in 2002. The results show that the estimated mode shares by the proposed model have better consistency with observed values than the current Logit model estimates in terms of root mean square error and correlation coefficients.