The Social Security crisis? An evaluation of status quo Social Security.

摘要

Public opinion regarding the financial future of the Social Security program is largely negative. In this dissertation, we examine the merits of status quo Social Security. The purpose of this inquiry is to analyze the current system, and attempt to determine if it is reasonable to expect status quo Social Security to continue to perform well in the future, or if the merits of privatization warrant consideration of incremental or sweeping change. We examine the size, scope and importance of the Social Security program, including all of its social insurance protections, not just the retirement benefit. We review the 1983 Amendments and how they have influenced status quo Social Security. We discuss whether the health of Social Security should be judged on the basis of projected future financial and actuarial balance. We discuss how politics, rhetoric, ideological conflict, public opinion, economics, demography, finance and programmatic design have influenced status quo Social Security. Finally, we develop an estimating equation to forecast payroll earnings subject to Social Security taxation, using several long-range 75-year forecast assumptions of the Trustees of the Social Security Administration. We conclude with the finding that the Trustees are relatively pessimistic in their future financial forecast of taxable earnings, and additionally, that this measure is inappropriate to use to estimate future solvency.