Climate and climate change and infectious disease risk in Thailand: A spatial study of dengue hemorrhagic fever using GIS and remotely-sensed imagery.

摘要

The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.