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An investigation into the positive and normative aspects of monetary policy.

机译:对货币政策的积极和规范方面的调查。

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摘要

This dissertation consists of three chapters, each of which focuses on a different aspect of monetary policy. In the first chapter, I develop a methodology that uses private forecasts of output, interest rates and prices to assess the effects of money on output and prices. I contrast the predictions of my model with the current practice that derives forecasts from a linear econometric model. The advantage of my methodology is that it is more likely to be robust to changes in policy regimes and to the exclusion of important information from the forecasting equations. I find that the two approaches yield broadly similar results concerning the effect of money on output, but that the effect of tight money on prices is positive when using the market-based shocks constructed from private forecasts.; In the second chapter, I present a theoretical analysis of the response of optimal monetary policy to productivity shocks. I develop a model in which money is used as the medium of exchange. I characterize the policy of a monetary authority that maximizes the welfare of its citizens, and analyze the implications of this policy for unemployment insurance. I find that monetary authorities tend to increase money supply when productivity increases. This implies an insurance policy that is procyclical, the opposite of the standard counter-cyclical view of unemployment insurance.; In the third chapter, I analyze the costs and benefits of monetary unions. I extend the model considered in chapter two to multiple-countries, and contrast the policies of national monetary authorities that maximize national welfare with those of a monetary union that maximizes the welfare of the union as a whole. I find that the national monetary authorities tend to create too much money. Smaller or more open nations have a greater incentive to create money. I find that if the countries are not too dissimilar then the creation of a union increases welfare.
机译:本文共分三章,分别针对货币政策的不同方面。在第一章中,我开发了一种方法,该方法使用私人对产出,利率和价格的预测来评估货币对产出和价格的影响。我将模型的预测与当前的从线性计量经济模型得出的预测进行对比。我的方法的优势在于,它更有可能对政策制度的变化以及从预测方程式中排除重要信息具有鲁棒性。我发现这两种方法在货币对产出的影响方面产生了大致相似的结果,但是当使用私人预测构建的基于市场的冲击时,紧钱对价格的影响是积极的。在第二章中,我对最优货币政策对生产率冲击的反应进行了理论分析。我开发了一种模型,在该模型中,金钱被用作交换媒介。我描述了货币当局的政策,该政策最大程度地提高了其公民的福利,并分析了该政策对失业保险的影响。我发现,当生产率提高时,货币当局往往会增加货币供应。这意味着是周期性的保险政策,与标准的反周期失业保险观点相反。在第三章中,我分析了货币联盟的成本和收益。我将第二章中考虑的模型扩展到多个国家,并比较了使国家福利最大化的国家货币当局的政策与使整个联盟的福利最大化的货币联盟的政策。我发现国家货币当局倾向于创造过多的货币。较小或更开放的国家更有创造资金的动机。我发现,如果这些国家不太相似,那么成立工会将增加福利。

著录项

  • 作者

    Thapar, Aditi.;

  • 作者单位

    Boston University.;

  • 授予单位 Boston University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.; Economics Finance.; Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 136 p.
  • 总页数 136
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;财政、金融;经济学;
  • 关键词

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