Stabilization programs, monetary policy and exchange rate movements in emerging markets economies.

摘要

This dissertation examines issues on monetary policy and exchange rate behavior in developing countries. The first chapter studies welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. The second chapter studies how currency mismatch between revenues and liabilities may affect optimal monetary policy. Chapter three shows how a negative terms of trade shock may generate an overshooting of the exchange rate when the economy faces trade and financial frictions.; Chapter 1 analyses the welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. The assumption that only a fraction of households participate in asset market transactions differentiates this analysis from previous work. Households with access to the assets markets are better able to protect themselves from the changes in the inflation rate, at the cost of distorting their consumption path. However, the temporary reduction in the inflation tax is equivalent to a government loan that will be repaid later in the form of a higher seigniorage. Therefore, households without access to the assets markets, when credit constrained, may also be able to improve their welfare. This chapter attempts to show that, contrary to the predictions of traditional literature, temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs may end up benefiting households.; Chapter 2 studies how private dollarized liabilities may affect monetary policy. Private firms in developing countries commonly contract debt denominated in foreign currency. However, these countries face frequent and strong financial shocks, which generate pressures for a high depreciation of the exchange rate. Firms with a currency mismatch between revenues and liabilities could face liquidity problems. In this chapter, we are able to show that a tight monetary policy could alleviate firms facing financial distress due to their dollarized debts, since it would appreciate the exchange rate. The cost would be an initial contraction. However, a healthier balance sheet would allow higher investments and higher future growth.; Chapter 3 studies the role that trade frictions may play in exchange rate movements. Based on empirical observations, we assume that exports can only grow at a limited rate. Therefore, when the economy also faces financial constraints, a negative terms of trade shock would generate an initial sharp fall on imports, which is driven by an overshooting of the exchange rate.