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Minimizing forced outage risk in generator bidding.

机译:最小化发电机招标中的强制停电风险。

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Competition in power markets has exposed the participating companies to physical and financial uncertainties. Generator companies bid to supply power in a day-ahead market. Once their bids are accepted by the ISO they are bound to supply power. A random outage after acceptance of bids forces a generator to buy power from the expensive real-time hourly spot market and sell to the ISO at the set day-ahead market clearing price, incurring losses. A risk management technique is developed to assess this financial risk associated with forced outages of generators and then minimize it.; This work presents a risk assessment module which measures the financial risk of generators bidding in an open market for different bidding scenarios. The day-ahead power market auction is modeled using a Unit Commitment algorithm and a combination of Normal and Cauchy distributions generate the real time hourly spot market. Risk profiles are derived and VaRs are calculated at 98 percent confidence level as a measure of financial risk. Risk Profiles and VaRs help the generators to analyze the forced outage risk and different factors affecting it.; The VaRs and the estimated total earning for different bidding scenarios are used to develop a risk minimization module. This module will develop a bidding strategy of the generator company such that its estimated total earning is maximized keeping the VaR below a tolerable limit.; This general framework of a risk management technique for the generating companies bidding in competitive day-ahead market can also help them in decisions related to building new generators.
机译:电力市场的竞争使参与公司面临物理和财务不确定性。发电机公司竞标在日趋激烈的市场中供电。一旦他们的出价被ISO接受,它们便将具有供电能力。接受投标后的随机中断迫使发电机从昂贵的实时每小时现货市场购买电力,并以设定的提前一天的市场结算价卖给ISO,造成损失。开发了一种风险管理技术来评估与发电机强制停机相关的财务风险,然后将其最小化。这项工作提出了一个风险评估模块,该模块可测量公开市场中针对不同投标方案的发电企业投标的财务风险。利用单元承诺算法对日前电力市场拍卖进行建模,正态分布和柯西分布的组合可生成实时的每小时现货市场。得出风险概况,并以98%的置信度计算VaR,以衡量财务风险。风险概况和风险价值(VaR)帮助发电者分析强迫停电风险以及影响该风险的各种因素。不同投标方案的VaR和估计的总收入用于开发风险最小化模块。该模块将制定发电公司的竞标策略,以使其估计的总收益最大化,并使VaR保持在可容忍的极限以下。用于在竞争激烈的日间竞争市场中竞标的发电公司的风险管理技术的一般框架也可以帮助他们做出与建造新发电商有关的决策。

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