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Systemic Risks, Financial Intermediaries, and Asset Markets.

机译:系统性风险,金融中介机构和资产市场。

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摘要

The credit crisis of 2007--2009 has sparked an enormous interest in the role that financial intermediaries play in our economy. Recent literature examines how financial intermediaries affect not only macro-economic variables but also asset markets such as the stock and the bond markets. The underlying theme in this recent literature is that the function of financial intermediaries in our asset markets is not yet completely understood and requires further study. This dissertation is based on three chapters that examine the interaction between systemic risks, financial intermediaries, and asset markets.;The first chapter is titled 'Counterparty Credit Risk and the Credit Default Swap Market'. This chapter is a version of a forthcoming paper in the Journal of Financial Economics by the same title. This paper is coauthored with Navneet Arora and Francis Longstaff. Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced. In this chapter I examine this issue empirically. I find that counterparty credit risk is priced in the CDS market. The magnitude of the effect, however, is vanishingly small and is consistent with a market structure in which participants require collateralization of swap liabilities by counterparties.;The second chapter is titled 'Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation'. This chapter is a version of a UCLA Anderson working paper. This paper is coauthored with Hanno Lustig. I show that the largest commercial bank stocks, measured by book value, have significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than small- and medium-sized bank stocks, even though large banks are significantly more levered. I find a size factor in the component of bank returns that is orthogonal to the standard risk factors. This size factor, which has the right covariance with bank returns to explain the average risk-adjusted returns, measures size-dependent exposure in banks to bank-specific tail risk. The variation in exposure can be attributed to differences in the financial disaster recovery rates between small and large banks. A general equilibrium model with rare bank disasters can match these alphas in a sample without disasters provided that the difference in disaster recovery rates between the largest and smallest banks is 35 cents per dollar of dividends.;In the final chapter of this dissertation I document a new stylized fact regarding aggregate bank credit growth and the excess returns of bank stocks. I find that a 1% increase in bank credit growth rate implies that excess returns on bank stocks over the next one year are lower by nearly 3%. Unlike most other forecasting relationships, credit growth tracks bank stock returns over the business cycle and explains nearly 14% of the variation in bank stock returns over a 1-year horizon. I show that this predictive variation in returns reflects the representative agent's rational response to a small time-varying probability of a tail event that impacts banks and bank-dependent firms. Consistent with this hypothesis I show that the predictive power, as measured by the absolute magnitude of the coefficient on credit growth and the adjusted- R2 at the the 1-year horizon, depends systematically on variables that regulate exposure to tail risk. Historically, the probability of a tail event increases in a recession, therefore this mechanism also explains the observed correlation between variation in aggregate bank credit level and business conditions.
机译:2007--2009年的信贷危机引起了人们对金融中介机构在我们的经济中所扮演的角色的极大兴趣。最近的文献研究了金融中介机构如何不仅影响宏观经济变量,而且还影响资产市场,例如股票和债券市场。这些最新文献的基本主题是,金融中介机构在我们资产市场中的功能尚未完全理解,需要进一步研究。本论文是基于三章来探讨系统性风险,金融中介机构和资产市场之间的相互作用的。第一章为“交易对手信用风险和信用违约掉期市场”。本章是即将发表在《金融经济学杂志》上的同一标题的版本。本文由Navneet Arora和Francis Longstaff合着。交易对手信用风险已成为金融市场参与者面临的最引人注目的风险之一。尽管如此,对交易对手信用风险的实际定价知之甚少。在本章中,我将凭经验研究此问题。我发现交易对手信用风险是由CDS市场定价的。但是,这种影响的规模正在逐渐缩小,并且与参与者要求交易对手对掉期债务进行抵押的市场结构保持一致;第二章的标题是``美国银行股票收益的规模异常:一种财政解释''。本章是UCLA Anderson工作文件的一个版本。本文与Hanno Lustig合着。我表明,以账面价值衡量,最大的商业银行股票比中小型银行股票的风险调整后收益要低得多,尽管大型银行的杠杆作用要大得多。我在银行收益的组成部分中发现了一个与标准风险因素正交的规模因素。该大小因数与银行收益率具有正确的协方差,可以解释平均风险调整后的收益,它衡量了银行因规模而异的特定于银行的尾部风险。敞口的变化可以归因于大小银行之间金融灾难恢复率的差异。只要最大和最小银行之间的灾难恢复率差异为每美元红利35美分,具有罕见银行灾难的一般均衡模型就可以在没有灾难的样本中将这些alpha值匹配。在本文的最后一章中,我记录了关于银行信贷总额增长和银行股票超额收益的新的程式化事实。我发现银行信贷增长率提高1%意味着未来一年银行股票的超额收益将降低近3%。与大多数其他预测关系不同,信贷增长跟踪整个商业周期内的银行股票收益,并解释了1年内银行股票收益变化的近14%。我表明,这种收益的预测性变化反映了代表代理人对影响银行和依赖银行的公司的尾部事件随时间变化的小概率的合理响应。与此假设一致,我表明,通过信用增长系数的绝对大小和在1年内的调整后R2来衡量的预测能力,系统地取决于调节暴露于尾部风险的变量。从历史上看,在衰退中发生尾部事件的可能性增加,因此,该机制还可以解释观察到的总银行信贷水平变化与业务状况之间的相关性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Gandhi, Priyank.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Los Angeles.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Los Angeles.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Management.;Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 206 p.
  • 总页数 206
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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