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Optimal Policyholder Behavior in Personal Savings Products and its Impact on Valuation.

机译:个人储蓄产品中投保人的最优行为及其对估值的影响。

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Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits (GMWBs) provide the right but not the obligation to withdraw a certain amount every year free of charge and independent of the investment performance. My dissertation studies optimal policyholder behavior in personal savings products and the resulting financial risks for the issuer by analyzing in detail these guarantees. In particular, I provide novel insights on the following two important research questions: What drives optimal policyholder behavior in life insurance? And what are the implications of optimal exercise behavior for product design?;Insurers' attempts to estimate and correctly anticipate policyholder withdrawal behavior vary tremendously and are typically driven by intuition and past behavior rather than economic insights. This is problematic due to the scarcity of data for these relatively new products, and the inability to extrapolate the observed behavior to different market conditions. In contrast, the actuarial literature has approached the problem from an arbitrage pricing perspective, where policyholders are assumed to exercise their options in a way that maximizes the risk-neutral market-consistent value of the resulting cash flows. The implied policyholder behavior, however, does not square well with observed prices and empirical exercise patterns.;I address this discrepancy in my first essay, Revisiting the Risk-Neutral Approach to Optimal Policyholder Behavior: A Study of Withdrawal Guarantees in Variable Annuities. Since the market for personal savings products exhibits frictions -- typically, investors cannot sell their policies, or parts thereof, at their risk-neutral value -- and is incomplete, key assumptions underlying standard arbitrage pricing are violated. Therefore, (optimal) exercise behavior might be affected by the policyholders' preferences.;To analyze this in more detail, I develop a life-cycle model for a Variable Annuity with a withdrawal guarantee as well as outside investment opportunities. I find that while the valuation results are rather insensitive to preference characteristics, they are strongly affected by the consideration of appropriate tax treatments: The tax-deferred growth property of Variable Annuities (in the U.S.) not only makes them a popular long-term investment vehicle, but also shapes the investors' optimal withdrawal behavior.;Based on these insights, I then develop a risk-neutral valuation approach that incorporates the proper tax treatments, and -- as expected given my earlier findings -- valuation results closely resemble those from the life-cycle model. I also find that they are substantially different from the case analyzed in the literature, that is without considering taxation. In particular, my analysis of an empirical Variable Annuity product suggests that the GMWB fees are sufficient to cover the costs of the guarantee, contrary to findings from the literature. Hence, one key result from this essay is that the consideration of taxes alone appears sufficient to explain policyholder exercise behavior within Variable Annuities including a GMWB.;My second essay, On Negative Option Values in Personal Savings Products, concerns the design of personal savings products. In particular, I demonstrate that it is possible for financial options to have negative marginal value for the issuer. The key insight is that when the financial market exhibits frictions and is incomplete, market participants deviate from traditional arbitrage pricing and their value functions no longer are direct opposites. If subjective valuation is affected by individual preferences, the idea of risk-sharing comes to mind. However, negative option values can arise even when policyholder and insurer both are value maximizers: The consideration of taxes introduces a third (inactive) party -- the government -- to the transaction.;For instance, in the context of Variable Annuities, adding a standard guarantee may incentivize the policyholder to reduce her withdrawals and the likelihood of surrender, and thus also her tax obligations (as tax payments are deferred). Since the government collects fewer taxes, there is more money to be distributed between the two main parties. If, in addition, the policyholder holds other (implicit or explicit) options from the same issuer, and the presence of the additional option makes exercising them less optimal, it is conceivable that both investor and issuer gain from the addition of the option -- at the expense of the third party.;In Sections 2 and 3 of Essay 2, I demonstrate with a two-period model and by implementing an empirical product, respectively, that a death benefit guarantee (GMDB) written on a Variable Annuity with a GMWB may result in exactly such an effect: The death benefit guarantee has a negative value to its issuer, so that both insurer and policyholder benefit from the product (at the expense of the government). It may thus come as no surprise that death benefit guarantees have become a standard feature in Variable Annuity policies, and most withdrawal guarantees (including the one that I use as an empirical example) now also promise to return the remaining benefits base in case of the policyholder's death. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
机译:保证最低提款收益(GMWBs)提供权利,但没有义务每年免费提款一定数量,且与投资业绩无关。本文通过对这些担保的详细分析,研究了个人储蓄产品中最优的保单持有人行为以及由此给发行人带来的财务风险。特别是,我对以下两个重要的研究问题提供了新颖的见解:是什么驱动人寿保险中保单持有人行为的最佳化?最佳行权行为对产品设计的意义是什么?保险公司对保单持有人撤回行为的估计和正确预测的尝试差异很大,通常是由直觉和过去的行为而非经济见解所驱动。这是有问题的,因为这些相对较新的产品缺乏数据,并且无法将观察到的行为外推到不同的市场条件。相比之下,精算文献从套利定价的角度解决了这个问题,在这种情况下,假定保单持有人以最大程度地使所得现金流的风险中性市场一致价值的方式行使其选择权。但是,隐含的保单持有人行为与观察到的价格和经验模式并不一致。我在第一篇文章中探讨了这一差异,重新探讨了风险中性最优保单持有人行为的方法:可变年金的提款保证研究。由于个人储蓄产品市场表现出摩擦-通常,投资者无法以其风险中性值出售其保单或部分保单-并且不完整,因此违反了标准套利定价的主要假设。因此,(最佳)行使行为可能会受到保单持有人偏好的影响。为了更详细地分析这一点,我针对具有退出保证以及外部投资机会的可变年金开发了生命周期模型。我发现,虽然估值结果对偏好特征不敏感,但它们受到适当税收待遇的强烈影响:可变年金(在美国)的递延税率增长特性不仅使它们成为受欢迎的长期投资根据这些见解,然后我开发了一种风险中性的估值方法,该方法结合了适当的税收待遇,并且-正如我先前的发现所期望的那样-估值结果与那些从生命周期模型。我还发现它们与文献中分析的情况有很大的不同,即没有考虑征税。特别是,我对经验性可变年金产品的分析表明,与文献结果相反,GMWB费用足以支付担保成本。因此,本文的一项主要结果是,仅考虑税收就足以解释包括GMWB在内的可变年金内的保单持有人行使行为。我的第二篇文章《个人储蓄产品的负期权价值》涉及个人储蓄产品的设计。 。我特别指出,金融期权可能对发行人具有负边际价值。关键的见解是,当金融市场出现摩擦且不完整时,市场参与者就会偏离传统的套利定价,其价值功能不再是直接相反的。如果主观评估受到个人偏好的影响,那么就会想到风险分担的想法。但是,即使保单持有人和保险人都是价值最大化者,也会出现负期权价值:税收的考虑使交易中引入了第三方(非活跃)-政府-;例如,在可变年金的背景下,标准担保可以激励保单持有人减少提款和退保的可能性,从而减少其纳税义务(因为递延纳税)。由于政府征收的税款较少,因此在两个主要政党之间分配的资金更多。此外,如果保单持有人持有同一发行人的其他(隐性或显式)期权,并且附加期权的存在使它们的行使不那么理想,那么可以想象,投资者和发行人都将从期权的增加中获利-在论文2的第2节和第3节中,我分别使用两个周期的模型并通过实施经验产品来证明,写在可变年金上的身故赔偿保证(GMDB)具有GMWB可能会产生这样的效果:死亡抚恤金担保对其发行人具有负价值,这样保险公司和保单持有人都可以从该产品中受益(以政府为代价)。因此,死亡抚恤金担保已成为可变年金保单的标准特征就不足为奇了,现在大多数提款担保(包括我作为经验示例所使用的担保)也承诺会在发生这种情况时退还剩余的福利基数。保单持有人的死亡。 (摘要由UMI缩短。)

著录项

  • 作者

    Moenig, Thorsten.;

  • 作者单位

    Georgia State University.;

  • 授予单位 Georgia State University.;
  • 学科 Mathematics.;Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 102 p.
  • 总页数 102
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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