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Macroeconomic Recovery after a Currency Crisis.

机译:货币危机后的宏观经济复苏。

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摘要

This dissertation explores the dynamics adjustment of output, output components, labor market variables and output growth after currency crises. In the first essay, I examine the dynamic response of output and its components to large devaluations in 159 countries over the 1970-2005 period. Recent empirical literature on measuring the effects of currency crises shows permanent drops in output following these events. However, theoretical models of contractionary devaluations predict only temporary drops in output due to nominal wage rigidities. I examine whether one can reconcile early theoretical predictions of full long-run recovery of output with the data after isolating the twin crisis episodes. Our estimates show that the output fully recovers to its pre-crisis level in about four years when a currency crisis is not associated with a banking crisis. The analyses of the components show that the initial contractionary effects are due to drops in consumption and investment with slow recovery. The net exports do increase though not sufficient to offset the drops in the other components. In the second essay, I use a panel of 66 countries over the 1990-2010 period to examine the short and long-term impact of currency crises on key labor market variables including real wages. Previous studies are either short-term, case study analysis of the issue or focus mainly on employment. The results, suggest that the adjustment in labor market following a currency crisis is mainly through real wages. While employment and labor productivity initially decline, these decreases are far less than the decrease in real wages and the recovery is also swifter. The recovery in real wages is sluggish and usually takes at least three and at most eight years. The results are robust to different definitions of currency crises and estimation methods. The third essay concerns the shape of GDP growth recovery following currency crises. While theoretically the shape of output growth recovery is ambiguous, the empirical literature employs univariate approach and reports mixed results. Therefore, I re-examine the issue further with a multivariate approach. I estimate "U-shape", "V-shape" and "L-shape" models of growth recovery first proposed by Kim et al. (2005) in the context of post-recession recovery. Thereafter, based on the information criteria I allow the data to select the appropriate model. The methodology enables us to test for the significance of higher than average growth rate or 'bounce-back' term in the recovery phase. I consider currency crashes and reserve crises, as the two forms of currency crises, separately. The results suggest that there is a significant and positive bounce-back in growth rates after currency crashes. Moreover, the shape of the recovery is "U-shaped" across the entire panel. Alternatively, after reserve losses, the recovery resembles a long "U-shaped" model and there is no bounce-back in growth rates. Moreover, I found that a large pre-crisis short term debt relative to total foreign debt and pre-crisis share of export sector in an economy are the best predictors of post-crisis recovery.
机译:本文探讨了货币危机后产出,产出成分,劳动力市场变量和产出增长的动态调整。在第一篇文章中,我研究了1970-2005年间159个国家的产出及其构成要素对大幅贬值的动态响应。近期有关衡量货币危机影响的经验文献表明,这些事件之后产出永久下降。但是,收缩贬值的理论模型预测,由于名义工资的刚性,产出只会暂时下降。我研究了在隔离双胞胎危机事件之后,能否将早期的理论预测(即产出的长期全面恢复)与数据相协调。我们的估计表明,当货币危机与银行业危机无关时,产出会在大约四年内完全恢复到危机前的水平。对成分的分析表明,最初的收缩效应是由于消费和投资下降而恢复缓慢。净出口确实增加了,但不足以抵消其他组成部分的下降。在第二篇文章中,我使用一个由66个国家/地区组成的小组在1990-2010年期间研究了货币危机对包括实际工资在内的主要劳动力市场变量的短期和长期影响。先前的研究要么是对该问题的短期案例研究分析,要么主要侧重于就业。结果表明,货币危机后劳动力市场的调整主要是通过实际工资进行的。尽管就业和劳动生产率最初下降,但这些下降幅度远小于实际工资的下降幅度,而且复苏也较快。实际工资的恢复缓慢,通常至少需要三年,最多八年。结果对于货币危机和估计方法的不同定义是可靠的。第三篇文章涉及货币危机后国内生产总值增长复苏的形式。虽然理论上产出增长恢复的形状是模棱两可的,但经验文献采用单变量方法并报告了混合结果。因此,我将使用多变量方法进一步检查该问题。我估计了Kim等首先提出的增长恢复的“ U形”,“ V形”和“ L形”模型。 (2005年)在衰退后的复苏中。之后,基于信息标准,我允许数据选择适当的模型。该方法使我们能够测试恢复阶段高于平均增长率或“反弹”期的重要性。我认为货币崩溃和储备危机分别作为两种形式的货币危机。结果表明,在货币崩盘后,增长率出现了显着且积极的反弹。而且,回收物的形状在整个面板上是“ U形”的。另外,在准备金损失之后,复苏类似于长期的“ U形”模型,并且增长率没有反弹。此外,我发现相对于外债总额和危机前出口总额在经济中所占比例而言,危机前的短期债务较大,是危机后复苏的最佳预测指标。

著录项

  • 作者

    Teimouri, Sheida.;

  • 作者单位

    West Virginia University.;

  • 授予单位 West Virginia University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 107 p.
  • 总页数 107
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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