Examining the Effects of External Price Shocks on the Economy of China by the Use of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model.

摘要

Within the framework of a dynamic CGE model for the Chinese economy, we simulate increases in global food and energy prices and appreciation of nominal exchange rate.;First, our results show that increases in global prices for agricultural products in the last decade had overall positive effects on the Chinese economy: investment growth and an improved trade balance pushed the GDP up. The consumption per capita fell below the benchmark in the short to medium run but overcame this trend in the long run. The food price increases partially explain the consumer price inflation in China and the observed accumulation of foreign asset holdings. We demonstrate that restrictive policy interventions into agricultural markets have harmed the development of China's agricultural sector.;Second, in contrast to the impact of increased food prices, higher global prices for energy commodities negatively influenced both the real economy and private incomes in China. Household consumption suffered the most significant effects of reduced GDP growth. We also find that energy prices were largely responsible for the domestic inflation in the last decade. While the economic growth rate has slowed, the growth itself has continued: positive rates of growth have remained for all economic indicators, suggesting that China's economy has a strong growth foundation and is equipped to meet the challenge of increased energy prices.;Third, we found that the recent appreciation of the nominal exchange rate of the yuan, the Chinese national currency, has had contractionary effects on the economy and exacerbated income inequality. Nevertheless, it has appreciably helped to curb inflation and reduced external imbalances. We argue that the yuan appreciation can serve as an effective inflation control instrument that should be accompanied by proper social policies targeting income inequality.;In general, China's economy has proved strong enough to respond to global challenges. Most negative effects do not eliminate the positive growth rate but only slow it slightly. Provided proper policies, China has the potential to continue its role as a leading power in the world economy in the decades to come.;Keywords: dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; economy of China; global food prices; global energy prices; exchange rate appreciation; economic optimisation in GAMS.