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Mathematical Analysis of the Role of Movement in the Spread of Tuberculosis.

机译:运动在结核病传播中作用的数学分析。

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摘要

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious respiratory disease caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis. TB is the second largest cause of mortality by infectious diseases and is a challenging disease to control. It spreads easily among people via droplets propagated by an infectious person. Treatment against TB has been available since the 1950s; however, various problems with treatment have led to the emergence of drug-resistance in TB bacteria, which further complicates disease control.;Furthermore, TB is a disease that predominantly affects poor countries or countries with high population densities. With the generalization of travel and migration in the second half of the twentieth century, individuals infected in such countries are likely to move to or spend some time in richer countries, making TB a worldwide problem.;In this thesis, we consider the role of population movement in the spread of tuberculosis by studying two different models. The first one is an extension to a spatialized context of a simple existing mathematical model for the spread of TB. We establish that, similarly to the original model, the equilibrium without disease is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. In the case that R0 > 1, we prove that the system is uniformly persistent. The second model considers the spread of drug-resistant TB in a population, then between connected populations. We establish that a backward bifurcation can occur and that the coupled system has more types of equilibria than the systems in isolation. Finally, we consider a general class of models including the previous two in isolation and after coupling. We investigate which dynamical properties of the isolated models are preserved when coupling the models through movement. Some new results are provided in that direction.
机译:结核病(TB)是由结核分枝杆菌引起的感染性呼吸道疾病。结核病是传染病造成的第二大死亡原因,并且是一种难以控制的疾病。它通过感染者传播的飞沫在人体内轻易传播。自1950年代以来,已有针对结核的治疗方法。然而,治疗的各种问题导致结核病细菌出现耐药性,这使疾病控制更加复杂。此外,结核病是一种主要影响贫困国家或人口密度高的国家的疾病。随着20世纪下半叶旅行和移民的普遍化,在这些国家中受感染的个人可能会迁移到富裕国家或在富裕国家度过一段时间,从而使结核病成为全球性问题。在本论文中,我们考虑了结核病的作用。通过研究两种不同的模型,研究结核传播中的人口运动。第一个是对结核病传播的简单现有数学模型的空间化上下文的扩展。我们确定,与原始模型类似,当基本繁殖数R0小于1时,没有疾病的平衡全局渐近稳定。在R0> 1的情况下,我们证明系统是一致持久的。第二种模型考虑了耐药结核病在人群中的传播,然后在相关人群之间传播。我们确定了可能发生向后分叉,并且耦合系统比孤立系统具有更多类型的平衡。最后,我们考虑一类通用的模型,包括孤立的和耦合后的前两个模型。我们研究了通过运动耦合模型时保留了孤立模型的哪些动力学特性。在这个方向上提供了一些新的结果。

著录项

  • 作者单位

    University of Manitoba (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Manitoba (Canada).;
  • 学科 Mathematics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 126 p.
  • 总页数 126
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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