Optimal reliability design method for remote solar systems.

摘要

A unique optimal reliability design algorithm is developed for remote communication systems. The algorithm deals with either minimizing an unavailability of the system within a fixed cost or minimizing the cost of the system with an unavailability constraint. The unavailability of the system is a function of three possible failure occurrences: individual component breakdown, solar energy deficiency (loss of load probability), and satellite/radio transmission loss. The three mathematical models of component failure, solar power failure, transmission failure are combined and formulated as a nonlinear programming optimization problem with binary decision variables, such as number and type (or size) of photovoltaic modules, batteries, radios, antennas, and controllers. Three possible failures are identified and integrated in computer algorithm to generate the parameters for the optimization algorithm. The optimization algorithm is implemented with a branch-and-bound technique solution in MS Excel Solver. The algorithm is applied to a case study design for an actual system that will be set up in remote mountainous areas of Peru. The automated algorithm is verified with independent calculations. The optimal results from minimizing the unavailability of the system with the cost constraint case and minimizing the total cost of the system with the unavailability constraint case are consistent with each other. The tradeoff feature in the algorithm allows designers to observe results of 'what-if' scenarios of relaxing constraint bounds, thus obtaining the most benefit from the optimization process. An example of this approach applied to an existing communication system in the Andes shows dramatic improvement in reliability for little increase in cost. The algorithm is a real design tool, unlike other existing simulation design tools. The algorithm should be useful for other stochastic systems where component reliability, random supply and demand, and communication are important factors, such as inventory control and cell phone networks.