The influence of earnings guidance from and direction on investors' earnings expectations.

摘要

This study presents results of an experiment that examines the joint effects of earnings guidance form and direction on investor's earnings expectations using the Heuristic-Systematic Model (HSM) as a theoretical framework. I focus on the interaction among earnings guidance form (range or point), guidance direction (up or down) and earnings predictability (higher or lower, measured as previous periods' earnings variability and pattern). My results support the following predictions based on an extension of HSM: Lower earnings predictability induces systematic processing, and the combination of vague (range) guidance and a directional cue (up or down) leads decision makers to engage in directional systematic processing. When earnings are less predictable, participants who receive upward (downward) range guidance predict significantly higher (lower) earnings than those who receive upward (downward) point guidance. In contrast, when earnings are more predictable, participants are less motivated to engage in systematic processing. They adopt heuristic processing instead, which reduces their sensitivity to the joint effects of direction and form. Theory and results from this study improve our understanding of how management disclosure characteristics, features of financial reporting and the information environment affect investors' earnings expectations.