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Causal Strategic Inference in Social and Economic Networks.

机译:社会经济网络中的因果战略推断。

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摘要

Who are the most influential senators in Congress? Is there a small coalition of senators who are influential enough to prevent filibusters? In a different setting of microfinance markets, can we predict the effects of interventions to help policy makers? In order to pursue such diverse questions, we propose causal strategic inference, a game-theoretic counterpart of causal probabilistic inference. Using this general framework, we study two different sets of problems, broadly on social networks and networked microfinance economies.;In the first study, we introduce a new approach to the study of influence that captures the strategic aspects of the complex interactions in a network. We design influence games, a new class of graphical games, as a model of the behavior of a large but finite networked population. Influence games can deal with positive as well as negative influence without having to consider network dynamics. We characterize the computational complexity of various problems on influence games, propose effective solutions to the hard problems, and design approximation algorithms, with provable guarantees, for identifying the most influential individuals in a network. Our empirical study is based on the real-world data obtained from congressional voting records and Supreme Court rulings.;Our second study is on microfinance economies. It is motivated by the challenge of formulating economic policies without the privilege of conducting trial-and-error experiments. First, we model a microfinance market as a two-sided economy. We then learn the parameters of the model from real-world data and design algorithms for various computational problems. We show the uniqueness of equilibrium interest rates for a special case and give a constructive proof of equilibrium existence in the general case. Using data from Bangladesh and Bolivia, we show that our model captures various real-world phenomena and can be used to assist policy makers in the microfinance sector.;Despite contrasting application areas, these two studies bear a common signature that is prevalent in many other domains as well: the actions of the entities in a network-structured complex system are strategically inter-dependent. This dissertation presents a computational game-theoretic framework for studying causal questions in such scenarios.
机译:谁是国会最有影响力的参议员?是否有一个由小众议员组成的联盟,其影响力足以阻止反对派?在小额信贷市场的不同背景下,我们能否预测干预措施对决策者的帮助?为了解决这些不同的问题,我们提出了因果战略推断,这是因果概率推断的博弈论对应。使用这个通用框架,我们研究了两个不同的问题集,广泛地涉及社会网络和网络化小额信贷经济。在第一个研究中,我们引入了一种新的影响力研究方法,该方法捕获了网络中复杂交互的战略方面。 。我们将影响力游戏(一种新型的图形游戏)设计为庞大但有限的网络人口行为的模型。影响力游戏可以处理正面和负面影响,而无需考虑网络动态。我们描述了影响力博弈中各种问题的计算复杂性,提出了难题的有效解决方案,并设计了具有可证明的保证的近似算法,用于识别网络中最具影响力的个人。我们的实证研究是基于从国会投票记录和最高法院的裁决中获得的真实数据。我们的第二项研究是关于小额信贷的经济。它的动机是制定经济政策而没有进行试错实验的特权。首先,我们将小额信贷市场建模为双向经济。然后,我们从现实世界的数据和针对各种计算问题的设计算法中学习模型的参数。我们展示了特殊情况下均衡利率的唯一性,并给出了在一般情况下均衡存在的建设性证据。使用来自孟加拉国和玻利维亚的数据,我们表明我们的模型可以捕获各种现实世界的现象,并且可以用于协助小额信贷领域的政策制定者。尽管有不同的应用领域,这两项研究具有共同的特征,在许多其他领域也很普遍。领域:网络结构的复杂系统中实体的行为在策略上是相互依赖的。本文提出了一种在这种情况下研究因果问题的计算博弈论框架。

著录项

  • 作者

    Irfan, Mohammad Tanvir.;

  • 作者单位

    State University of New York at Stony Brook.;

  • 授予单位 State University of New York at Stony Brook.;
  • 学科 Computer Science.;Artificial Intelligence.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 159 p.
  • 总页数 159
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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