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Geographical techniques to quantify spatial patterns of precipitation in United States landfalling tropical cyclones.

机译:量化美国登陆热带气旋的降水空间格局的地理技术。

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摘要

Tropical Cyclone (TC) rainfall can cause fresh water flooding. Models developed to predict TC rainfall patterns as recently as 2001 only account for storm intensity and predict symmetrical rainfall patterns. This study analyzes ground-based radar data to better quantify the spatial patterns of TC precipitation. Base reflectivity radar data are analyzed within a Geographical Information System in hourly intervals for thirteen U.S. landfalling TCs during 1997--2003. Precipitation shape measures are calculated using annular rings surrounding the storm's center divided into quadrants and eleven geographical measures of shape including eccentricity and six measures that quantify the degree to which precipitation encircles the storm's center. Next, discriminant and principal components analyses determine how eleven environmental factors influence the TC precipitation shapes. These factors are intensity, size, forward velocity, wind shear, dry air entrainment, angle of coastal approach, distance from the coastline, sea surface temperatures, effects of topography, diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations of precipitation, and interaction with mid-latitude weather systems. I use these results to construct regression equations that predict the location, eccentricity, and areal extent of TC precipitation.; Results suggest that three independent variables are necessary to predict TC precipitation. They also show a distinction between the areal coverage of precipitation located near the storm center and that located further from storm center. Intensity, forward velocity, directional wind shear, and distance to the coastline are the most important physical factors that influence the shape of precipitation produced by U.S. landfalling TCs. The faster tangential winds of hurricanes allow precipitation to form a circular shape. Tropical storms are more linear, have less areal coverage of precipitation, and have less inner region precipitation. The precipitation patterns of tropical depressions vary widely in shape and areal extent due to the influence of many physical factors such as directional wind shear. Fast-moving TCs have an elongated shape with decreased (increased) inner (outer) region precipitation. Storms encountering strong directional wind shear are linear with precipitation located in the downshear direction. Drier air mixing into the storm's center causes the eyewall to open asymmetrically. TCs remaining near the coastline experience increased areal coverage of precipitation.
机译:热带气旋(TC)降雨会导致淡水泛滥。 2001年开发的用于预测TC降雨模式的模型仅考虑了风暴强度并预测了对称的降雨模式。这项研究分析了地面雷达数据,以更好地量化TC降水的空间格局。在1997--2003年期间,按小时间隔在地理信息系统中分析了13个美国降落TC的基本反射率雷达数据。使用围绕风暴中心的环形环(分为象限)和十一个形状的地理测量值(包括偏心率)和六种测量值(量化降水围绕风暴中心的程度)来计算降水量。接下来,判别和主成分分析确定11种环境因素如何影响TC的降水形状。这些因素是强度,大小,前进速度,风切变,夹带干燥空气,沿海进近的角度,距海岸线的距离,海面温度,地形的影响,降水的日和半日振荡以及与中纬度天气系统的相互作用。我用这些结果来构造回归方程,以预测TC降水的位置,偏心率和面积范围。结果表明,三个独立变量对于预测TC降水是必要的。它们还显示了位于风暴中心附近和较风暴中心附近的区域降水覆盖之间的区别。强度,前进速度,定向风切变和到海岸线的距离是影响美国登陆热带气旋产生的降水形状的最重要的物理因素。飓风更快的切向风使降水形成圆形。热带风暴的线性度更高,降水的区域覆盖较少,内部区域的降水较少。由于许多物理因素(例如定向风切变)的影响,热带洼地的降水模式在形状和面积上变化很大。快速移动的TC呈细长形,内部(外部)沉淀减少(增加)。遇到强方向风切变的暴风雨与降切线方向的降水呈线性关系。干燥的空气混入风暴中心会导致眼墙不对称打开。残留在海岸线附近的TC的降水覆盖面增加。

著录项

  • 作者

    Matyas, Corene J.;

  • 作者单位

    The Pennsylvania State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Pennsylvania State University.;
  • 学科 Physical Geography.; Physics Atmospheric Science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 342 p.
  • 总页数 342
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 自然地理学;大气科学(气象学);
  • 关键词

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