Taiwan has experienced the most rapid economic development in its history in recent years. Based on per capita income, it has gone from a developing country to a developed one in this period. The population structure of the country is similar to that of Western Europe and America and will be affected by problems associated with an aging population in the near future. The birth rate of Taiwan has fallen continuously every year since 1951. Only 227,000 infants were born in 2004, which is almost 12 percent less than those born in 2003. The number of births per woman of 1.2 in 2004 is the lowest in Taiwan's history.; According to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report (December 2004), a declining birth rate poses many problems. The labor force will decline; average income will shrink: social welfare expenditures will fall; and younger persons will face increasing taxes required to support the elderly. The OECD found that modern women like to have children but they worry about the high cost of raising children. The purpose of my research is to understand the economic and demographic underpinnings of the long-term reduction in the birth rate in Taiwan. This is an essential first step in formulating policies to reverse the trend.; In my research, I will focus on three issues: (1) the relation between higher education by women and fertility, (2) the relation between the availability of family planning services and fertility, and (3) the relationship between infant mortality and fertility. My data pertain to 361 townships and districts of Taiwan for the period from 1976 through 2002. I will collect the data from two publications of the government of Taiwan: Population for Townships and Districts and the Family Planning Reference Book. Compared to previous research in this area, the advantages of my study are that I cover a longer period of time and include the most recent data.; Using this long time series of town cross sections, I will estimate the effects of male schooling, female schooling, and the percentage of the male labor force employed in agriculture, infant mortality, and the availability of family planning services on age specific birth rates. My statistical methods will include fixed-effects and first-difference regression models. My ultimate aim is to see how much of the dramatic decline in fertility in the period at issue can be accounted for by trends in each of the factors just mentioned. When combined with projections concerning, for example, the future growth in female schooling levels, these estimates can be used by policy makers to gauge the amount of subsidies required to reverse the trend in fertility or to encourage increases in family size.
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