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Technology Foresight for Small- to Medium-sized Enterprises.

机译:中小型企业的技术远见。

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摘要

Businesses, regardless of size, require the best information available to them in order to optimize their technological plans for the future. Currently, however, large, multi-national enterprises (MNEs), along with nations, are availing themselves of a set of tools that are not being used by small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These tools fall under the general description of "foresight" and the more specific term technology foresight.;Technology foresight applies to all purposeful and systematic attempts to anticipate and understand the potential direction, rate, characteristics, and effects of technological change, especially invention, innovation, adoption, and use. Technology foresight is undertaken for the purpose of managing technology as a corporate resource similar to the tools used for financial management or personnel development. Many foresight methods require significant staff and monetary resources. This research, after providing a history of the concept of technology foresight, describes a majority of the foresight methods and techniques currently in use and pares them down with reference to the special resource characteristics of SMEs to identify eight methods that are determined to be sufficiently economic of time and money to be suitable for use by SMEs. These eight methods are: backcasting, bibliometrics, diffusion modeling, long wave analysis, monitoring, technological substitution, trend extrapolation, and vision generation. Two of the eight methods---bibliometrics and long wave analysis---are further explored through application to a hypothetical SME.
机译:无论规模大小,企业都需要为他们提供最佳信息,以便优化其未来的技术计划。但是,目前,大型跨国企业(MNEs)与国家/地区一起,正在利用一套中小型企业(SME)尚未使用的工具。这些工具属于“预见性”的一般描述,更确切地说是技术预见性。技术预见性适用于所有有目的和系统的尝试,以预期和理解技术变革(尤其是发明)的潜在方向,趋势,特征和影响,创新,采用和使用。进行技术预见是为了将技术作为公司资源进行管理,类似于用于财务管理或人员发展的工具。许多有远见的方法需要大量的人员和金钱资源。这项研究在提供了技术预见概念的历史之后,描述了当前使用的大多数预见方法和技术,并参照中小企业的特殊资源特征对其进行了缩减,以识别出确定为足够经济的八种方法。适合中小企业使用的时间和金钱。这八种方法是:反向投射,文献计量,扩散建模,长波分析,监视,技术替代,趋势外推和视觉生成。通过应用于假设的SME,进一步探索了八种方法中的两种-文献计量学和长波分析-。

著录项

  • 作者

    Phillips, Joanne Gladys.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Alberta (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Alberta (Canada).;
  • 学科 Engineering Mechanical.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 278 p.
  • 总页数 278
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 老年病学;
  • 关键词

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