The real exchange rate, productivity, and the terms of trade.

摘要

The theoretical literature assumes that real variables affect the real exchange rate only through the relative price of nontraded goods. In Chapter 2, I decompose the real Canada-US exchange rate into the relative prices of traded goods and nontraded goods and analyze how real shocks affect these two relative prices. I find that shocks to productivity and commodity prices affect the real exchange rate almost entirely through the relative price of traded goods. This evidence calls for explicit modeling of the transmission mechanism from real shocks to the real exchange rate through the relative price of traded goods.; In Chapter 3, I develop a model that allows the relative price of traded goods to play a role in the transmission mechanism. The model is a generalization of the basic Balassa-Samuelson model that incorporates terms-of-trade and productivity shocks in a unified framework. The generalization is parsimonious since it maintains the law of one price for each traded good. However, the model does not have the law of one price for the composite traded good. This is necessary to allow traded goods to act as a channel in the transmission mechanism. The model implies that domestic productivity shocks depreciate the relative price of tradables, while shocks to world commodity prices appreciate it. The empirical analysis provides some support for the first prediction, but rejects the second prediction.; In Chapter 4, I analyze whether the depreciation of the real Canada-US exchange rate can be a driving force behind the widening of the Canada-US productivity gap in manufacturing since the 1980s. I focus on the factor cost hypothesis, that states that a real exchange rate depreciation can make capital relatively more expensive than labour, causing manufacturing firms to adopt more labour intensive technologies. Using a Vector Error Correction Model, I find that a real depreciation of the Canadian dollar reduces the relative Canada-US capital-labour ratio and labour productivity in manufacturing in accordance with the hypothesis. However, the contribution of this channel in explaining movements of the relative productivity in manufacturing is only about ten per cent at a five year horizon.