Maghreb trade relations: Evaluation and prospects.

摘要

There is general consensus on the fact that trade policies of leading economies have a strong impact on the world economy and serve as a catalyst of new trade patterns. While economists will continue to debate whether multilateral trade agreements or regionalism constitute the most effective strategy, the ongoing financial crisis makes it clear to major economic powerhouses (United States, European Union, and China) that the pristine markets in North Africa represent the best opportunity for a sustainable recovery.;By dangling the process of globalization before Arab countries who seek accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), US and other leading economies created a need for the development of a uniformed regulatory framework to establish the foundations for this integration and provide for a common set of rules and principles to achieve a free trade area in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As these countries implement domestic reform agendas, institute the rule of law, protect property rights (including intellectual property), and create a foundation for openness and economic growth, they minimize trade diversion, increase transparency for traders, and secure access to the dispute settlement mechanisms of the WTO.;In order to make a thorough assessment of economic integration between the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) countries, I will analyze intra-Maghreb trade given its latent high pay-offs to the region. My thesis deals with the following key issues: Does the Maghreb face a trade integration deficit? If so, is this deficit caused by the implementation of the 1995 Euromed agreement 2 (trade diversion)? What is the region's potential in generating trade and attracting foreign direct investments? Since no study has been specifically devoted to these issues, this paper is intended to fill the lack of literature for three selected Maghreb countries: Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria.;Investigation into this topic requires a thorough examination of many different sources. Information is collected by examining books, articles, and other scholarly publications. I also approach my thesis problem by incorporating my experience and lessons learned from my current position at the U.S. Department of Commerce, to make my own conclusions concerning the potential of economic integration in the Maghreb.;My thesis is organized as follows. Chapter I: "The Inception of the Arab Maghreb Union." This chapter provides an overview of the driving forces that led to the creation of this union and describes the objectives, advantages, and challenges faced by Maghreb countries. Chapter II: "The Evaluation of Intra-Maghreb Trade Relations (1989--2009)" examines how relevant, effective and efficient the integration strategies have been in the region. The period of analysis is from 1989 to 2009. 1989, the year the agreement was formally signed by all member nations to constitute an economic union, is chosen as the starting point of the review. The selected Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) for this analysis represent a case-model that is used to inspire other nations in the Maghreb region to embark in their own development campaigns. Chapter III "Maghreb Relations with the European Union" scrutinizes threats and opportunities of economic integration. The threats have to do with asymmetrical liberalization of trade with the European Union. The opportunities are related to special features of the Mediterranean Rim and the strong presence of European FDI in the Maghreb area. Chapter IV: "The Role of Entrepreneurship in the Economic Development of the Maghreb" addresses the importance of small and medium enterprises in job creation and their contribution to economic growth of the Maghreb economies. The final chapter "Conclusion" presents suggestions and recommendations to enhance the progress and welfare of Maghreb countries. Finally, the essence of my thesis is that it gives an in-depth look at the current development challenges facing the Maghreb by assessing trade relations in the region (i.e. economic and political initiatives and FDI potential), determining lack of political will to launch full fledge cooperation among AMU members, and suggesting the development of entrepreneurship as a vehicle for economic growth and the first step towards achieving a better future for the growing labor force. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)