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An analysis of the use of debt default calculations and online credit ratings in predicting bankruptcy.

机译:分析使用债务违约计算和在线信用评级来预测破产。

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摘要

Corporate defaults soared in 2001, marking the third consecutive year that they reached record levels. For the first time ever defaults broke the 200 mark, 216 rated and previously rated issuers defaulted on {dollar}116 billion of debt. Standard & Poor's default studies found that there is a clear correlation between credit quality and default remoteness. The study showed that the higher the rating, the lower the probability of default. The lower the obligator's original rating the shorter the time it takes to default (Brady & Bos, 2002).; This study examines the prediction of bankruptcy as measured by debt default in combination with cash flow ratios controlling for Standard and Poor's performance ratings. The Standard and Poor's Credit ratings information being readily available online provides information on the loan default in a timelier manner. Therefore, market participants and potential stockholders would not have to rely solely on the auditor's going concern opinion of the previous accounting period to predict bankruptcy.; The conclusion of this study has therefore cast doubt on the utility of Standard and Poor's ratings as a predictive tool for bankruptcy because it showed that as S&P ratings decrease (become lower) firms are more likely to declare bankruptcy is contrary to the Brady and Bos (2002) study showing that the higher the rating the lower the probability of default.
机译:公司违约率在2001年猛增,标志着它们连续第三年达到创纪录水平。违约率有史以来首次突破200大关,有216家评级和先前评级的发行人违约了1,160亿美元的债务。标准普尔(Standard&Poor)的违约研究发现,信贷质量和违约程度之间存在明显的相关性。研究表明,等级越高,违约的可能性越低。债务人的原始评级越低,违约时间越短(Brady&Bos,2002)。这项研究检验了通过债务违约结合控制标准普尔绩效评级的现金流量比率来衡量破产的预测。在线提供的标准普尔信用评级信息可以及时提供有关贷款违约的信息。因此,市场参与者和潜在股东不必仅仅依靠审计师对先前会计期间的持续经营意见来预测破产。因此,这项研究的结论使人们对标准普尔评级作为破产预测工具的效用产生了怀疑,因为它表明,随着标普评级的降低(变得更低),公司更有可能宣布破产与布雷迪和博斯相反( 2002)研究表明,等级越高,违约的可能性越低。

著录项

  • 作者

    Brathwaite, Faye A.;

  • 作者单位

    Nova Southeastern University.;

  • 授予单位 Nova Southeastern University.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Accounting.; Business Administration Management.
  • 学位 D.B.A.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 101 p.
  • 总页数 101
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财务管理、经济核算;贸易经济;
  • 关键词

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