Quantitative analysis of the economic situation. An application of the state -space representation of multiple time series.

摘要

Two of the most popular issues in the past several decades have been the measurement of economic development and the definition of determining factors in economic growth, attracting the interest of scientists of all kinds, especially economists. This study focuses on the coyuntural analysis of economic macro-magnitudes.;Coyuntural analysis is carried out with the fundamental goal of examining the behavior of the economy once its position and foreseeable evolution have been analyzed. This prediction appears not only as a decisive aspect, but as the most complex integral element revealed by an analysis of this intersection of forces.;The application of this study on a regional level is especially interesting. Regional data is particularly difficult to obtain within the European Union, as local information is not as readily available as that which pertains to national economics. Practical application is focused on the creation of economic indicators specific to the region of Castilla-La Mancha.;This study utilizes exhaustive statistical methods which are of particular interest in the current field of economics. Its application to the field of economic macro-magnitude quantification has a distinct impact, as this subject generally results in heightened controversy where measurement is concerned.;In addition to the development and practice of currently existing statistical methods for coyuntural analysis, significant contributions have been made to the use of space state models. Although formally equivalent to the well-known ARIMA models, the nature of temporary space state series presents structural and computational advantages, making it especially suitable for coyuntural analysis. Thus, recent development and application continues to grow, making this a clear alternative to the Box-Jenkins approach.