The efficiency of the oil futures market and the hedging effectiveness of symmetric vs. asymmetric GARCH models during periods of extreme conditional volatility.

摘要

This paper investigates the efficiency of the NYMEX Division light sweet crude oil futures contract market during recent periods of extreme conditional volatility. Crude oil futures contract prices are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and unbiased predictors of future spot prices, including over the period prior the onset of the Iraqi war and until the formation of the new Iraqi government on April 2005. Both futures and spot prices exhibit asymmetric volatility characteristics. Hedging performance is improved when asymmetries are accounted for.